Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Milan - Qualification, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 28 June 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Milan 🌤️ ... 🔴 Clay


	Daniele Rapagnetta		Vadym Ursu

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Daniele Rapagnetta
59.2%

Vadym Ursu
40.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

41.1%

58.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.5%

59.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Daniele Rapagnetta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+18.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Daniele Rapagnetta's performance.

Vadym Ursu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-18.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Vadym Ursu might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Daniele Rapagnetta than the current prediction. (-18.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Daniele Rapagnetta that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vadym Ursu than the current prediction. (+18.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Vadym Ursu could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

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Rapagnetta is ranked ATP: 898. Ursu is ranked ATP: 390.

Rapagnetta is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Ursu's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Rapagnetta may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Rapagnetta could have a small edge in this match.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Daniele Rapagnetta
ITF Tournaments
24.06.26	Matthew Donald - Daniele Rapagnetta	2:1 ✺
09.06.26	Gabriele Piraino - Daniele Rapagnetta	2:1 ✺
02.06.26	Daniele Rapagnetta - Matteo Sciahbasi	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
25.05.26	Tomasz Berkieta - Daniele Rapagnetta	2:1 ✺
24.05.26	Daniele Rapagnetta - Imanol Lopez Morillo	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LLLLW
- Vadym Ursu
ATP Challenger
14.06.26	Yu Hsiou Hsu - Vadym Ursu	2:0 ✺
07.06.26	Vadym Ursu - Dimitar Kuzmanov	1:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
30.05.26	Leonardo Rossi - Vadym Ursu	0:2 ✺
28.05.26	Andreas Timini - Vadym Ursu	0:2 ✺
27.05.26	Yoan Naydenov - Vadym Ursu	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LLWWW

Daniele Rapagnetta - Vadym Ursu