Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Soma Bay 2 - Qualification, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 18 January 2026, Sunday


	Ergi Kirkin		Gianmarco Ferrari

	1	2
			Watch
	1.55	2.25	Watch
	1.55	2.3	Watch
	1.67	2.1
	1.57	2.25	Watch
	1.6	2.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.59 ↓ (1.99)	2.23 ↑ (1.72)

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ergi Kirkin
58.4%

Gianmarco Ferrari
41.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

46.3%

53.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ergi Kirkin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ergi Kirkin's performance.

Gianmarco Ferrari has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Gianmarco Ferrari might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	0%	16.7%

Ergi Kirkin - Gianmarco Ferrari Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Kirkin (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -2.5 Games - Kirkin (1.88) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Ergi Kirkin will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Kirkin (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Kirkin is ranked ATP: 564. Ferrari is ranked ATP: 453.

Kirkin has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Kirkin may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Kirkin won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ergi Kirkin
ITF Tournaments
09.01.26	Ergi Kirkin - Mert Alkaya	0:2 ✺
08.01.26	Ergi Kirkin - Oscar Brown	2:0 ✺
07.01.26	Ergi Kirkin - Mustapha El Natour	2:0 ✺
02.01.26	Yannik Kelm - Ergi Kirkin	2:0 ✺
01.01.26	Kerem Yilmaz - Ergi Kirkin	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LWWLW
- Gianmarco Ferrari
ITF Tournaments
26.11.25	Gianmarco Ferrari - Hugo Ouzilou	0:2 ✺
16.11.25	Ziga Sesko - Gianmarco Ferrari	0:2 ✺
15.11.25	Sebastiano Cocola - Gianmarco Ferrari	0:2 ✺
14.11.25	Alessandro Battiston - Gianmarco Ferrari	0:2 ✺
13.11.25	Lorenzo Bocchi - Gianmarco Ferrari	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
28.03.24	Ergi Kirkin - Gianmarco Ferrari	2:0

Ergi Kirkin - Gianmarco Ferrari: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide