Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Hersonissos 4 - Qualification, hard - Final

Date: 18 August 2025, Monday


	Filippo Moroni		Amit Vales

	1	2
	1.33	3.05	Watch
	1.37	3.04
	1.44	2.68	Watch
			Watch
			Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.38 ↓ (1.5)	2.92 ↑ (2.41)

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Filippo Moroni
67.9%

Amit Vales
32.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.6%

38.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.5%

40.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Filippo Moroni has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Filippo Moroni's performance.

Amit Vales has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Amit Vales might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Filippo Moroni than the current prediction. (-8.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Filippo Moroni that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Amit Vales than the current prediction. (+8.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Amit Vales could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Filippo Moroni - Amit Vales Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Moroni (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 Sets - Moroni (1.87) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 21 Games - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Moroni (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Moroni is ranked ATP: 568. Vales is ranked ATP: 873.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Vales may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Moroni will hold a modest advantage in this match.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Filippo Moroni
ATP Challenger
17.08.25	Filippo Moroni - Vladimir Holban	2:0 ✺
13.08.25	Petr Brunclik - Filippo Moroni	2:0 ✺
11.08.25	Filippo Moroni - Orel Kimhi	Moroni F. retired ✺
10.08.25	Filippo Moroni - Ivan Nedelko	Nedelko I. retired ✺
ITF Tournaments
25.07.25	Filippo Moroni - Laurent Lokoli	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 WL??L
- Amit Vales
ATP Challenger
17.08.25	Ivan Nedelko - Amit Vales	0:2 ✺
11.08.25	Amit Vales - Ilya Ivashka	1:2 ✺
10.08.25	Rigele Te - Amit Vales	1:2 ✺
04.08.25	Daniil Glinka - Amit Vales	2:0 ✺
03.08.25	Amit Vales - Luca Potenza	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 WLWLW

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