Match Info

CHALLENGER WOMEN - SINGLES: Canberra - Qualification, hard - Final

Date: 4 January 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Canberra 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard


	Himeno Sakatsume		Mary Stoiana

	1	2
	1.69	2.05	Watch
	1.58	2.26	Watch
	1.67	2.05	Watch
	1.69	2.08
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.66 ↓ (1.84)	2.11 ↑ (1.85)

The best margin for this event is 7.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Himeno Sakatsume
56%

Mary Stoiana
44%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

50.1%

49.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.5%

43.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Himeno Sakatsume has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Himeno Sakatsume's performance.

Mary Stoiana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Mary Stoiana might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Himeno Sakatsume than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mary Stoiana than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	0%	60%

Himeno Sakatsume - Mary Stoiana Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Sakatsume will win (votes: 2 - 40%). Stoiana will win (votes: 3 - 60%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Mary Stoiana will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Sakatsume is ranked WTA: 156. Stoiana is ranked WTA: 227.

In recent matches, both players have secured multiple victories.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Sakatsume won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Mary Stoiana - the odds 1.85 are the expected chance of winning is 49.86%, but this team recently wins 78% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Himeno Sakatsume
ATP Challenger
03.01.26	Himeno Sakatsume - Carol Young Suh Lee	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
22.11.25	Yeon Woo Ku - Himeno Sakatsume	1:2 ✺
21.11.25	Himeno Sakatsume - Lanlana Tararudee	2:0 ✺
20.11.25	Zarina Diyas - Himeno Sakatsume	0:2 ✺
19.11.25	En Shuo Liang - Himeno Sakatsume	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 WWWWW
- Mary Stoiana
ATP Challenger
03.01.26	Mary Stoiana - Alice Rame	2:1 ✺
ITF Tournaments
22.11.25	Mary Stoiana - Kayla Cross	2:1 ✺
21.11.25	Maria Fernanda Navarro - Mary Stoiana	0:2 ✺
20.11.25	Anna Sinclair Rogers - Mary Stoiana	0:2 ✺
19.11.25	Hiroko Kuwata - Mary Stoiana	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
28.07.23	Himeno Sakatsume - Mary Stoiana	0:2

Himeno Sakatsume - Mary Stoiana