Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: St. Tropez, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 22 September 2026, Tuesday


	Hugo Grenier		Thomas Faurel

	1	2
	1.5	2.5	Watch
	1.48	2.50
	1.49	2.44	Watch
	1.46	2.57	Watch
	1.52	2.55
	1.48	2.47	Watch
	1.49	2.44
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.49 ↓ (1.57)	2.5 ↑ (2.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.00

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hugo Grenier
62.6%

Thomas Faurel
37.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.1%

40.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.2%

44.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hugo Grenier has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

Thomas Faurel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hugo Grenier than the current prediction. (-7.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Hugo Grenier that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Thomas Faurel than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Thomas Faurel could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Hugo Grenier - Thomas Faurel Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Grenier is ranked ATP: 289., and Faurel is ranked ATP: 340..

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

Faurel could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Grenier is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

These two players have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Last Results with these Odds

Hugo Grenier - the odds 1.57 are the expected chance of winning is 59.07%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hugo Grenier
ATP Challenger
21.09.26	Hugo Grenier - Vadym Ursu	2:0 ✺
20.09.26	Hugo Grenier - Christian Langmo	2:0 ✺
07.09.26	Hugo Grenier - Billy Harris	0:2 ✺
01.09.26	Billy Harris - Hugo Grenier	2:0 ✺
ATP Winston-Salem
25.08.26	Hugo Grenier - Sebastian Baez	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 WWLLL
- Thomas Faurel
ITF Tournaments
18.09.26	Thomas Faurel - Andreja Petrovic	1:2 ✺
17.09.26	Thomas Faurel - Yannis Batsabaken	2:0 ✺
15.09.26	Thomas Faurel - Adan Freire Da Silva	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
04.09.26	Dusan Obradovic - Thomas Faurel	2:0 ✺
02.09.26	Thomas Faurel - Calvin Hemery	Hemery C. Retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LWWL?

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