Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Phan Thiet, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 23 January 2026, Friday


	Ilia Simakin		Robin Bertrand

	1	2
	1.44	2.63	Watch
	1.45	2.55	Watch
	1.30	3.26	Watch
	1.5	2.5	Watch
	1.46	2.53	Watch
	1.33	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.41 ↓ (1.67)	2.72 ↑ (2.1)

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ilia Simakin
65.8%

Robin Bertrand
34.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.7%

44.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51%

49%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ilia Simakin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ilia Simakin's performance.

Robin Bertrand has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Robin Bertrand might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ilia Simakin than the current prediction. (-14.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ilia Simakin that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Robin Bertrand than the current prediction. (+14.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Robin Bertrand could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	0%	16.7%

Ilia Simakin - Robin Bertrand Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Simakin (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 22.5 Games - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -2.5 Games - Simakin (1.70) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Ilia Simakin will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Simakin (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Simakin is ranked ATP: 275. Bertrand is ranked ATP: 307.

Simakin is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Bertrand's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Simakin may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Simakin won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 1.5:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Ilia Simakin - the odds 1.67 are the expected chance of winning is 55.72%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ilia Simakin
ATP Challenger
21.01.26	Omar Jasika - Ilia Simakin	0:2 ✺
20.01.26	Pol Martin Tiffon - Ilia Simakin	1:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
17.01.26	Niels Visker - Ilia Simakin	2:0 ✺
16.01.26	Dominik Palan - Ilia Simakin	1:2 ✺
15.01.26	Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong - Ilia Simakin	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WWLWW
- Robin Bertrand
ATP Challenger
21.01.26	Robin Bertrand - Hyeon Chung	2:1 ✺
19.01.26	Robin Bertrand - Matej Dodig	Dodig M. retired ✺
12.01.26	Kaichi Uchida - Robin Bertrand	2:1 ✺
07.01.26	Robin Bertrand - Sergey Fomin	0:2 ✺
05.01.26	Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez - Robin Bertrand	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 W?LLW

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
10.02.24	Ilia Simakin - Robin Bertrand	1:2
13.04.23	Robin Bertrand - Ilia Simakin	1:2

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