Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Catania - Qualification, clay - Final

Date: 12 October 2026, Monday


	Jakub Vrba		Daniel Siniakov

	1	2
			Watch
	2.50	1.45
	2.55	1.45	Watch
	2.55	1.45	Watch
	2.50	1.48
	2.50	1.47
	2.65	1.40
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.54 ↑ (2.05)	1.45 ↓ (1.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.50

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jakub Vrba
36.3%

Daniel Siniakov
63.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.1%

54.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.1%

51.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jakub Vrba has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Jakub Vrba's form might have worsened.

Daniel Siniakov has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Daniel Siniakov's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jakub Vrba than the current prediction. (+11.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Jakub Vrba, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Daniel Siniakov than the current prediction. (-11.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Daniel Siniakov, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Jakub Vrba - Daniel Siniakov Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Siniakov will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Siniakov (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Vrba is ranked ATP: 1111., and Siniakov is ranked ATP: 519..

Vrba is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Siniakov has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Vrba could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Bookmakers give the edge to Siniakov for this game.

These two players have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Last Results with these Odds

Daniel Siniakov - the odds 1.68 are the expected chance of winning is 54.89%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jakub Vrba
ATP Challenger
11.10.26	Dragos Nicolae Madaras - Jakub Vrba	1:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
29.09.26	Dragos Nicolae Cazacu - Jakub Vrba	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
21.09.26	Jakub Vrba - Spencer Johnson	0:2 ✺
20.09.26	Blaise Bicknell - Jakub Vrba	Bicknell B. Retired ✺
ITF Tournaments
30.08.26	Jakub Vrba - Bryce Nakashima	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.2 WLL?L
- Daniel Siniakov
ATP Challenger
11.10.26	Paolo Gabriele Marino - Daniel Siniakov	0:2 ✺
05.10.26	Daniel Siniakov - Yanaki Milev	1:2 ✺
04.10.26	Daniel Siniakov - Daniele Rapagnetta	2:1 ✺
ITF Tournaments
23.09.26	Daniel Siniakov - Claus Piening	Canceled ✺
ATP Challenger
08.09.26	Daniel Siniakov - Vitaliy Sachko	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 WLW?L

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