Match Info

CHALLENGER WOMEN - SINGLES: Jingshan, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 28 September 2026, Monday


	Jia-Jing Lu		Hayu Kinoshita

	1	2
	2.25	1.57	Watch
	2.10	1.67
	2.18	1.65	Watch
	2.13	1.64	Watch
	2.16	1.68
	2.14	1.64	Watch
	2.15	1.63
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 ↓ (2.28)	1.64 ↑ (1.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.00

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jia-Jing Lu
43.2%

Hayu Kinoshita
56.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.6%

59.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.5%

63.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jia-Jing Lu has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

Hayu Kinoshita has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jia-Jing Lu than the current prediction. (-6.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Jia-Jing Lu that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hayu Kinoshita than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Hayu Kinoshita could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Jia Jing Lu - Hayu Kinoshita Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Lu is ranked WTA: 391., and Kinoshita is ranked WTA: 215..

Lu has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Kinoshita has struggled for form in recent encounters (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Lu may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Kinoshita holding a narrow advantage.

These two players have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jia-Jing Lu
ITF Tournaments
23.09.26	Jia-Jing Lu - Tiana Tian Deng	0:2 ✺
22.09.26	Jia-Jing Lu - Cheuk Ying Shek	2:1 ✺
19.09.26	Hiromi Abe - Jia-Jing Lu	2:1 ✺
18.09.26	Jia-Jing Lu - Ena Shibahara	2:0 ✺
17.09.26	Eri Shimizu - Jia-Jing Lu	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LWLWW
- Hayu Kinoshita
WTA Sao Paulo
15.09.26	Darja Semenistaja - Hayu Kinoshita	2:0 ✺
15.09.26	Leylah Annie Fernandez - Hayu Kinoshita	Canceled ✺
13.09.26	Hayu Kinoshita - Cadence Brace	0:2 ✺
12.09.26	Hayu Kinoshita - Victoria Rodriguez	2:1 ✺
ITF Tournaments
03.09.26	Oceane Dodin - Hayu Kinoshita	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 L?LWL

Jia-Jing Lu - Hayu Kinoshita: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide