Match Info

ITF WOMEN - SINGLES: W50 Gdansk, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 24 June 2026, Wednesday


	Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur		Lia Karatancheva

	1	2
			Watch
	1.36	2.80
	1.38	2.75
	1.40	3.02
	1.39	2.71	Watch
	1.36	2.75
	1.40	2.73	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.38 ↓ (1.41)	2.79 ↑ (2.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 20.50

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur
66.9%

Lia Karatancheva
33.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65%

35%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.5%

39.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Lia Karatancheva has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lia Karatancheva than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lia Karatancheva could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur - Lia Karatancheva Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Steur is ranked WTA: 439. Karatancheva is ranked WTA: 472.

Steur is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Karatancheva's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Karatancheva may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Steur is seen as the favorite.

We predict that Steur will win today's game, with odds of 1.35.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur - the odds 1.41 are the expected chance of winning is 65.01%, but this team recently wins 88% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur
ITF Tournaments
21.06.26	Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur - Julie Pastikova	2:0 ✺
20.06.26	Alena Kovackova - Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur	0:2 ✺
19.06.26	Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur - Weronika Falkowska	2:0 ✺
18.06.26	Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur - Ivana Sebestova	2:0 ✺
17.06.26	Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur - Amy Sucha	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 WWWWW
- Lia Karatancheva
ITF Tournaments
18.06.26	Lia Karatancheva - Cagla Buyukakcay	0:2 ✺
17.06.26	Valeria Garnevska - Lia Karatancheva	0:2 ✺
27.05.26	Lola Radivojevic - Lia Karatancheva	2:0 ✺
06.05.26	Lia Karatancheva - Julia Riera	1:2 ✺
29.04.26	Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez - Lia Karatancheva	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1 LWLLL

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