Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: San Diego, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 28 January 2026, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: San Diego 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard


	Karl Poling		Garrett Johns

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Karl Poling
31.9%

Garrett Johns
68.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

31.4%

68.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.6%

70.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Karl Poling has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Garrett Johns has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Karl Poling than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Garrett Johns than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Poling is ranked ATP: 605. Johns is ranked ATP: 300.

Poling is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Johns has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Poling may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Johns is a strong favorite.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Karl Poling
ATP Challenger
27.01.26	Karl Poling - Quinn Vandecasteele	2:0 ✺
26.01.26	Karl Poling - Keenan Mayo	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
16.01.26	Karl Poling - William Grant	0:2 ✺
15.01.26	Luca Pow - Karl Poling	0:2 ✺
14.01.26	Karl Poling - Ezekiel Clark	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.6 WWLWW
- Garrett Johns
ITF Tournaments
16.01.26	Garrett Johns - Lukas Pokorny	1:2 ✺
15.01.26	Garrett Johns - Kousuke Ogura	2:0 ✺
13.01.26	Garrett Johns - Yoan Naydenov	2:0 ✺
08.01.26	Garrett Johns - Alaa Trifi	1:2 ✺
07.01.26	Garrett Johns - Goncalo Marques	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LWWLW

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

Karl Poling - Garrett Johns