Match Info

WTA - SINGLES: US Open - Qualification, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 18 August 2025, Monday

Location: USTA Billie Jean King NTC (New York, NY)


	Katarzyna Kawa		Claire Liu

	1	2
	2.63	1.44
	2.77	1.42
	2.85	1.44
	2.85	1.41	Watch
			Watch
	2.04	1.72
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.63 ↑ (1.83)	1.49 ↓ (1.83)

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Katarzyna Kawa
36.1%

Claire Liu
63.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.9%

55.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Katarzyna Kawa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Katarzyna Kawa's form might have worsened.

Claire Liu has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Claire Liu's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Katarzyna Kawa than the current prediction. (+8.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Katarzyna Kawa, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Claire Liu than the current prediction. (-8.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Claire Liu, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.1%	0%	92.9%

Katarzyna Kawa - Claire Liu Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 Games - Liu (1.71) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Claire Liu will win (13 of 14 users predict this - 92.86%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.37% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Claire Liu will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Liu (votes: 7 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Kawa is ranked WTA: 120. Liu is ranked WTA: 388.

Kawa is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Liu's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Kawa may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Katarzyna Kawa - the odds 1.83 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Katarzyna Kawa
WTA Cincinnati
05.08.25	Emina Bektas - Katarzyna Kawa	2:0 ✺
WTA Iasi
15.07.25	Katarzyna Kawa - Anna Siskova	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
12.07.25	Elisabaetta Cocciaretto - Katarzyna Kawa	2:0 ✺
11.07.25	Katarzyna Kawa - Mayar Sherif	2:1 ✺
10.07.25	Dalma Galfi - Katarzyna Kawa	Galfi D. retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LLLW?
- Claire Liu
ITF Tournaments
13.08.25	Claire Liu - Nao Hibino	0:2 ✺
11.08.25	Claire Liu - Alexandra Vagramov	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
21.07.25	Claire Liu - Carlota Martinez Cirez	0:2 ✺
17.07.25	Claire Liu - Oksana Selekhmeteva	0:2 ✺
15.07.25	Claire Liu - Lisa Pigato	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LWLLW

Katarzyna Kawa - Claire Liu: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide