Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Poitiers, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 3 March 2026, Tuesday


	Loann Massard		Matt Ponchet

	1	2
	1.44	2.54
	1.38	3.08
	1.35	2.9	Watch
	1.33	2.9
	1.36	2.89	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.37 ↓ (1.44)	2.86 ↑ (2.54)

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Loann Massard
67.6%

Matt Ponchet
32.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.8%

36.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.8%

43.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Loann Massard has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

Matt Ponchet has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Loann Massard than the current prediction. (-10.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Loann Massard that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matt Ponchet than the current prediction. (+10.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Matt Ponchet could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Loann Massard - Matt Ponchet Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Massard is ranked ATP: 610. Ponchet is ranked ATP: 828.

In recent matches, Massard has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Ponchet is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Massard may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Massard might have a minor edge in this game.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Loann Massard - the odds 1.44 are the expected chance of winning is 63.82%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Loann Massard
ATP Challenger
22.02.26	Antoine Ghibaudo - Loann Massard	2:1 ✺
17.02.26	Loann Massard - Justin Engel	0:2 ✺
16.02.26	Sean Cuenin - Loann Massard	0:2 ✺
15.02.26	Loann Massard - Patrick Zahraj	2:0 ✺
08.02.26	Loann Massard - Martin Krumich	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 LLWWL
- Matt Ponchet
ITF Tournaments
24.02.26	Matt Ponchet - Jelle Sels	1:2 ✺
19.02.26	Matt Ponchet - Yanis Ghazouani Durand	0:2 ✺
17.02.26	Romain Andres - Matt Ponchet	0:2 ✺
13.01.26	Denis Petak - Matt Ponchet	2:0 ✺
09.01.26	Matt Ponchet - Karl Friberg	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLWLL

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