Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Santa Margherita di Pula 6, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 4 May 2026, Monday


	Luca Castagnola		Arthur Nagel

	1	2
			Watch
	3.61	1.3
	3.35	1.27	Watch
	3.2	1.29
	3.41	1.27	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.39 ↑ (3.07)	1.28 ↓ (1.31)

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luca Castagnola
27.4%

Arthur Nagel
72.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.9%

70.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.4%

72.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luca Castagnola has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Arthur Nagel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

The ML Model estimate for Luca Castagnola aligns with the current prediction.

The ML Model estimate for Arthur Nagel aligns with the current prediction.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Luca Castagnola - Arthur Nagel Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Castagnola is ranked ATP: 788. Nagel is ranked ATP: 462.

Castagnola has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Nagel's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Nagel may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Nagel is seen as the favorite.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luca Castagnola
ATP Challenger
27.04.26	Federico Arnaboldi - Luca Castagnola	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
16.04.26	Leonardo Rossi - Luca Castagnola	2:1 ✺
14.04.26	Luca Castagnola - Josh Roe Flannelly	2:0 ✺
09.04.26	Luca Castagnola - Federico Iannaccone	0:2 ✺
07.04.26	Luca Castagnola - Filip Jeff Planinsek	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 LLWLW
- Arthur Nagel
ATP Challenger
27.04.26	Pierre-Hugues Herbert - Arthur Nagel	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
22.04.26	Sergio Callejon Hernando - Arthur Nagel	2:1 ✺
14.04.26	Arthur Nagel - Felix Balshaw	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
29.03.26	Arthur Nagel - Pietro Orlando Fellin	1:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
29.03.26	Arthur Nagel - Matthew Donald	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 LLLLW

Luca Castagnola - Arthur Nagel: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide