Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Altamura, hard - Final

Date: 29 March 2026, Sunday


	Arthur Nagel		Matthew Donald

	1	2
	1.5	2.4
	1.58	2.4
	1.5	2.37	Watch
	1.5	2.38
	1.51	2.39	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.52 ↓ (1.63)	2.39 ↑ (2.12)

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arthur Nagel
61.1%

Matthew Donald
38.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.6%

43.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.7%

48.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arthur Nagel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

Matthew Donald has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arthur Nagel than the current prediction. (-9.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Arthur Nagel that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matthew Donald than the current prediction. (+9.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Matthew Donald could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Arthur Nagel - Matthew Donald Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Nagel is ranked ATP: 529. Donald is ranked ATP: 588.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Nagel may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Nagel will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Nagel won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Arthur Nagel - the odds 1.63 are the expected chance of winning is 56.57%, but this team recently wins 86% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arthur Nagel
ITF Tournaments
28.03.26	Arthur Nagel - Leonardo Rossi	2:0 ✺
27.03.26	Arthur Nagel - Alessandro Pecci	2:1 ✺
19.03.26	Raphael Perot - Arthur Nagel	2:0 ✺
18.03.26	Arthur Nagel - Niels Visker	2:0 ✺
14.03.26	Marvin Moeller - Arthur Nagel	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WWLWL
- Matthew Donald
ITF Tournaments
28.03.26	Matthew Donald - Lorenzo Bocchi	2:0 ✺
27.03.26	Nicolas Parizzia - Matthew Donald	0:2 ✺
11.03.26	Matthew Donald - Dominic Stephan Stricker	0:2 ✺
26.02.26	Mae Malige - Matthew Donald	2:1 ✺
24.02.26	Kacper Knitter - Matthew Donald	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
07.10.25	Arthur Nagel - Matthew Donald	2:0

Arthur Nagel - Matthew Donald: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide