Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Braga, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 7 October 2026, Wednesday


	Mackenzie McDonald		Ryan Nijboer

	1	2
			Watch
	2.15	1.62
	2.25	1.61	Watch
	2.08	1.67	Watch
	2.17	1.68
	2.16	1.62	Watch
	2.10	1.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.15 ↑ (1.84)	1.64 ↓ (1.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.00

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mackenzie McDonald
43.3%

Ryan Nijboer
56.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.8%

50.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.2%

44.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mackenzie McDonald has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Mackenzie McDonald's form might have worsened.

Ryan Nijboer has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ryan Nijboer's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mackenzie McDonald than the current prediction. (+11.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mackenzie McDonald, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ryan Nijboer than the current prediction. (-11.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ryan Nijboer, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	0%	20%

Mackenzie McDonald - Ryan Nijboer Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. McDonald (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Mackenzie McDonald will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

McDonald is ranked ATP: 169., and Nijboer is ranked ATP: 417..

In recent outings, McDonald has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Nijboer is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

McDonald could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

These two players have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Last Results with these Odds

Mackenzie McDonald - the odds 1.84 are the expected chance of winning is 49.77%, but this team recently wins 55% of matches with these odds.

Ryan Nijboer - the odds 1.82 are the expected chance of winning is 50.23%, but this team recently wins 42% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mackenzie McDonald
ATP Challenger
29.09.26	Toby Samuel - Mackenzie McDonald	2:0 ✺
ATP US Open
28.08.26	Dalibor Svrcina - Mackenzie McDonald	2:1 ✺
26.08.26	Thiago Seyboth Wild - Mackenzie McDonald	0:2 ✺
24.08.26	Stefano Napolitano - Mackenzie McDonald	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
19.08.26	Jacob Fearnley - Mackenzie McDonald	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LLWWL
- Ryan Nijboer
ATP Challenger
05.10.26	Ryan Nijboer - Benjamin Hassan	2:0 ✺
04.10.26	Ryan Nijboer - Nico Hipfl	2:1 ✺
ITF Tournaments
03.10.26	Ryan Nijboer - Alexander Ritschard	0:2 ✺
02.10.26	Nicolas Ifi - Ryan Nijboer	1:2 ✺
01.10.26	Pierre Delage - Ryan Nijboer	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WWLWW

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