Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Quinta Do Lago, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 29 April 2026, Wednesday


	Mario Gonzalez Fernandez		Francisco Rocha

	1	2
			Watch
	1.6	2.2
	1.64	2.28
	1.6	2.17	Watch
	1.57	2.2
	1.62	2.16	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.61 ↓ (1.64)	2.2 ↑ (2.19)

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez
57.8%

Francisco Rocha
42.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.2%

42.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.8%

46.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Francisco Rocha has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mario Gonzalez Fernandez than the current prediction. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Francisco Rocha than the current prediction. (+4%)

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Preview

Gonzalez Fernandez is ranked ATP: 577. Rocha is ranked ATP: 845.

The current form of both players is below expectations.

Rocha may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Gonzalez Fernandez might have a minor edge in this game.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez - the odds 1.64 are the expected chance of winning is 57.18%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mario Gonzalez Fernandez
ATP Challenger
05.04.26	Mario Gonzalez Fernandez - Oriol Roca Batalla	1:2 ✺
30.03.26	Theodore Winegar - Mario Gonzalez Fernandez	2:1 ✺
29.03.26	Oswaldo Alejandro Reyes Tirado - Mario Gonzalez Fernandez	0:2 ✺
22.03.26	Marc Polmans - Mario Gonzalez Fernandez	2:1 ✺
15.03.26	Takeru Yuzuki - Mario Gonzalez Fernandez	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLWLL
- Francisco Rocha
ITF Tournaments
22.04.26	Karol Filar - Francisco Rocha	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
12.04.26	Felix Gill - Francisco Rocha	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
31.03.26	Francisco Rocha - Philip Henning	0:2 ✺
28.03.26	Viacheslav Bielinskyi - Francisco Rocha	2:1 ✺
27.03.26	Marc Majdandzic - Francisco Rocha	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLLLW

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez - Francisco Rocha: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide