Match Info

ITF WOMEN - SINGLES: W35 San Rafael, CA, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 1 October 2025, Wednesday


	Merna Refaat		Madison Sieg

	1	2
	1.85	1.85
	1.5	2.45
	1.52	2.34	Watch
	1.48	2.5	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.59 ↓ (2.62)	2.29 ↑ (1.44)

The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Merna Refaat
59%

Madison Sieg
41%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.5%

64.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.1%

63.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Merna Refaat has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+23.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Merna Refaat's performance.

Madison Sieg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-23.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Madison Sieg might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Merna Refaat than the current prediction. (-22.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Merna Refaat that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Madison Sieg than the current prediction. (+22.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Madison Sieg could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Merna Refaat - Madison Sieg Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Refaat will win (votes: 9 - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Refaat: 100% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 Sets - Refaat (1.39) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Merna Refaat will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Refaat (votes: 8 - 88.9%). Sieg (votes: 1 - 11.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Refaat is ranked WTA: 975. Sieg is ranked WTA: 408.

Refaat is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Sieg has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Sieg may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Sieg could have a small edge in this match.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Merna Refaat
ITF Tournaments
28.09.25	Merna Refaat - Johanne Christine Svendsen	2:1 ✺
27.09.25	Merna Refaat - Zuzanna Pawlikowska	2:0 ✺
26.09.25	Alexis Nguyen - Merna Refaat	0:2 ✺
25.09.25	Merna Refaat - Yuliya Hatouka	2:0 ✺
24.09.25	Maria Aytoyan - Merna Refaat	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.7 WWWWW
- Madison Sieg
ITF Tournaments
13.09.25	Katarina Jokic - Madison Sieg	2:0 ✺
12.09.25	Carolina Kuhl - Madison Sieg	0:2 ✺
11.09.25	Sophia Biolay - Madison Sieg	0:2 ✺
10.09.25	Isabella Barrera Aguirre - Madison Sieg	0:2 ✺
05.09.25	Luisina Giovannini - Madison Sieg	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LWWWL

Merna Refaat - Madison Sieg: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide