Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Heraklion 9, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 8 October 2025, Wednesday


	Petr Nesterov		Finn Murgett

	1	2
	1.33	3.12
	1.34	2.88	Watch
	1.31	3.2	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.33 ↓ (1.44)	3.07 ↑ (2.52)

The best margin for this event is 7.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Petr Nesterov
69.8%

Finn Murgett
30.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.6%

36.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63%

37%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Petr Nesterov has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Petr Nesterov's performance.

Finn Murgett has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Finn Murgett might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Petr Nesterov than the current prediction. (-6.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Petr Nesterov that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Finn Murgett than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Finn Murgett could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Petr Nesterov - Finn Murgett Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Nesterov is ranked ATP: 525. Murgett is ranked ATP: 951.

Nesterov has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Murgett's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Murgett may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Nesterov might have a minor edge in this game.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Petr Nesterov
ITF Tournaments
30.09.25	Miles Jones - Petr Nesterov	2:0 ✺
29.08.25	Petr Nesterov - Radu David Turcanu	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
18.08.25	David Jorda Sanchis - Petr Nesterov	2:1 ✺
17.08.25	Viktor Kirov - Petr Nesterov	0:2 ✺
10.08.25	Petr Nesterov - Viktor Markov	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLLWL
- Finn Murgett
ITF Tournaments
01.10.25	Finn Murgett - Fons Van Sambeek	Canceled ✺
26.09.25	Finn Murgett - Filip Jeff Planinsek	0:2 ✺
25.09.25	Finn Murgett - Marcus Walters	2:1 ✺
24.09.25	Finn Murgett - Michalis Sakellaridis	2:0 ✺
03.09.25	Samir Hamza Reguig - Finn Murgett	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 ?LWWL

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