Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Nottingham 2, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 5 May 2026, Tuesday


	Ronit Karki		Finn Murgett

	1	2
			Watch
			Watch
	2.95	1.41
	2.71	1.39	Watch
	2.75	1.36
	2.89	1.36	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.83 ↓ (2.88)	1.38 ↑ (1.34)

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ronit Karki
32.8%

Finn Murgett
67.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.8%

68.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.3%

59.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ronit Karki has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Finn Murgett has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ronit Karki than the current prediction. (+7.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ronit Karki, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Finn Murgett than the current prediction. (-7.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Finn Murgett, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Ronit Karki - Finn Murgett Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Karki is ranked ATP: 962. Murgett is ranked ATP: 850.

Karki is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Murgett has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Karki may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Murgett might have a minor edge in this game.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ronit Karki
ITF Tournaments
30.04.26	Anton Matusevich - Ronit Karki	2:0 ✺
28.04.26	Conor Gannon - Ronit Karki	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
19.04.26	Tyler Zink - Ronit Karki	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
14.04.26	Ronit Karki - Dragos Nicolae Cazacu	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
06.04.26	Reda Bennani - Ronit Karki	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LWLLL
- Finn Murgett
ITF Tournaments
01.05.26	Anton Matusevich - Finn Murgett	2:0 ✺
30.04.26	Finn Murgett - Patrick Brady	2:0 ✺
29.04.26	Finn Murgett - Natan Rodrigues	2:0 ✺
26.04.26	Finn Murgett - Mykyta Mashtakov	0:2 ✺
23.04.26	Finn Murgett - Henry Lieberman	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 LWWLW

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