Match Info

ITF WOMEN - SINGLES: W50 Lopota 2, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 8 May 2025, Thursday


	Sofia Shapatava		Daria Khomutsianskaya

	1	2
			Watch
	1.25	3.73
	1.25	3.62	Watch
	1.29	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.26 ↓ (1.59)	3.62 ↑ (2.24)

The best margin for this event is 6.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sofia Shapatava
74.1%

Daria Khomutsianskaya
25.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.5%

41.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.7%

41.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sofia Shapatava has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sofia Shapatava's performance.

Daria Khomutsianskaya has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-15.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Daria Khomutsianskaya might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sofia Shapatava than the current prediction. (-15.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sofia Shapatava that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Daria Khomutsianskaya than the current prediction. (+15.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Daria Khomutsianskaya could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Sofia Shapatava - Daria Khomutsianskaya Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Shapatava is ranked WTA: 457. Khomutsianskaya is ranked WTA: 858.

In recent matches, Shapatava has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Khomutsianskaya is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Khomutsianskaya may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Shapatava could have a small edge in this match.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sofia Shapatava
ITF Tournaments
07.05.25	Urszula Radwanska - Sofia Shapatava	0:2 ✺
30.04.25	Anastasia Tikhonova - Sofia Shapatava	2:1 ✺
16.04.25	Sofia Shapatava - Katarina Kuzmova	Canceled ✺
03.04.25	Hephzibah Oluwadare - Sofia Shapatava	2:0 ✺
02.04.25	Daria Gorska - Sofia Shapatava	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WL?LW
- Daria Khomutsianskaya
ITF Tournaments
07.05.25	Daria Khomutsianskaya - Lina Gjorcheska	Gjorcheska L. retired ✺
06.04.25	Arianna Zucchini - Daria Khomutsianskaya	2:1 ✺
05.04.25	Daria Khomutsianskaya - Radka Zelnickova	2:1 ✺
04.04.25	Daria Khomutsianskaya - Iva Ivanova	2:0 ✺
03.04.25	Jenna Defalco - Daria Khomutsianskaya	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.1 ?LWWW

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