Match Info

PBA Commissioner's Cup

Date: 5 April 2026, Sunday


	Barangay Ginebra San Miguel		San Miguel Beermen

	1	2
			Watch
	1.95	1.78	Watch
	2.19	1.57
	2.31	1.58	Watch
	2.2	1.62
	2.25	1.61	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.18 ↑ (1.8)	1.63 ↓ (2.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 206.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-2)

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Barangay Ginebra San Miguel
42.8%

San Miguel Beermen
57.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.1%

46.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Barangay Ginebra San Miguel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Barangay Ginebra San Miguel's form might have worsened.

San Miguel Beermen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting San Miguel Beermen's recent form is better than expected.

Barangay Ginebra San Miguel - San Miguel Beermen Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 102:104

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Preview

San Miguel Beermen wins series 4-2. Sixth leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Barangay Ginebra won 1.

Barangay Ginebra may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Barangay Ginebra won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 1891:1923. (average 94.6:96.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Barangay Ginebra won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 862:924. (average 95.8:102.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Barangay Ginebra San Miguel - the odds 1.8 are the expected chance of winning is 53.13%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Barangay Ginebra San Miguel
Philippines - Commissioners Cup
29.03.26	Converge FiberXers - Barangay Ginebra San Miguel	93:99 ✺
27.03.26	Barangay Ginebra San Miguel - NLEX Road Warriors	113:118 ✺
20.03.26	Macau Black Bears - Barangay Ginebra San Miguel	93:110 ✺
Philippines Cup
16.01.26	San Miguel Beermen - Barangay Ginebra San Miguel	101:88 ✺
14.01.26	Barangay Ginebra San Miguel - San Miguel Beermen	109:115 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 WLWLL
- San Miguel Beermen
Philippines - Commissioners Cup
31.03.26	San Miguel Beermen - Macau Black Bears	110:94 ✺
28.03.26	TNT Tropang 5G - San Miguel Beermen	118:92 ✺
25.03.26	San Miguel Beermen - Converge FiberXers	103:99 ✺
21.03.26	Titan Ultra Giant Risers - San Miguel Beermen	119:112 ✺
Philippines Cup
01.02.26	San Miguel Beermen - TNT Tropang 5G	92:77 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Philippines Cup
16.01.26	San Miguel Beermen - Barangay Ginebra San Miguel	101:88
14.01.26	Barangay Ginebra San Miguel - San Miguel Beermen	109:115
11.01.26	San Miguel Beermen - Barangay Ginebra San Miguel	91:105
09.01.26	Barangay Ginebra San Miguel - San Miguel Beermen	85:91
07.01.26	San Miguel Beermen - Barangay Ginebra San Miguel	93:84
04.01.26	Barangay Ginebra San Miguel - San Miguel Beermen	99:90
26.10.25	San Miguel Beermen - Barangay Ginebra San Miguel	83:81

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