Match Info

Basket Liga - Round 5

Date: 25 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Hala Gryfia (Slupsk)

Where to Watch on TV:


Poland	Polsat Sport Extra 4


	Czarni Słupsk		Start Lublin

	1	2
	1.87	1.8
	1.78	1.88	Watch
	1.8	1.99
	2.04	1.65	Watch
	1.82	1.92
	2.12	1.64
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.91 ↓ (2.12)	1.81 ↑ (1.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 163.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-2)

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Czarni Słupsk
48.8%

Start Lublin
51.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.6%

56.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.1%

55.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Czarni Słupsk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Czarni Słupsk's performance.

Start Lublin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Start Lublin might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Czarni Słupsk than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Start Lublin than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

Czarni Słupsk - Start Lublin Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +2.5, OT - Czarni Słupsk (1.60) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Czarni Słupsk (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 83:81

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Duffy J.	25. Griffin B.
7. Ivory D.	3. Hawkins E.
25. Nowakowski M.	1. Mack T.
21. Skele A.	21. Put F. (C)
18. Tomczak S.	6. Wright J.
Substitutes
2. Carter C.	12. Ford Q.
0. Etou J.	8. Kepka W.
5. Musial J. (C)	0. Krasuski M.
12. Pluta J.	7. Pelczar B.
9. Wilczek D.	19. Szymanski R.
8. Zabrocki C.
Coaches
. Stelmahers R.	. Kaminski W.

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Czarni Słupsk won 2.

Czarni Słupsk is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Lublin has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Czarni Słupsk may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Czarni Słupsk won 13 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 1630:1523. (average 81.5:76.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Czarni Słupsk won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 757:595. (average 84.1:66.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Czarni Słupsk
Polish Basket Liga
19.10.25	Legia Warsaw - Czarni Słupsk	87:76 ✺
12.10.25	Czarni Słupsk - King Wilki Morskie Szczecin	101:76 ✺
04.10.25	Dąbrowa Górnicza - Czarni Słupsk	83:71 ✺
Club Friendly Basketball
28.09.25	Asseco Prokom Gdynia - Czarni Słupsk	74:73 ✺
14.09.25	Czarni Słupsk - Trefl Sopot	71:77 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LWLLL
- Start Lublin
FIBA Europe Cup
22.10.25	Rilski Sportist - Start Lublin	95:92 ✺
Polish Basket Liga
18.10.25	Start Lublin - Toruń	90:85 OT ✺
FIBA Europe Cup
15.10.25	Start Lublin - Bosna	90:80 ✺
Polish Basket Liga
11.10.25	MOSiR Krosno - Start Lublin	81:82 ✺
03.10.25	Legia Warsaw - Start Lublin	90:68 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Basket Liga
25.05.25	Start Lublin - Czarni Słupsk	109:94
22.05.25	Czarni Słupsk - Start Lublin	89:57
20.05.25	Czarni Słupsk - Start Lublin	92:73
17.05.25	Start Lublin - Czarni Słupsk	90:81
15.05.25	Start Lublin - Czarni Słupsk	84:82
26.04.25	Czarni Słupsk - Start Lublin	79:56
29.12.24	Start Lublin - Czarni Słupsk	83:77

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