Match Info

Proliga - Round 13

Date: 3 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Pavilhão Capitão Adriano Nordeste (Ílhavo)


	Illiabum		Sampaense

	1	2
	1.09	5.15
	1.08	6.24	Watch
	1.11	5.5
	1.03	8.3
	1.14	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.09 ↓ (1.36)	6.04 ↑ (2.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 148.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-11)

The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Illiabum
84.7%

Sampaense
15.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.1%

31.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.6%

32.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Illiabum has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+16.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Illiabum's performance.

Sampaense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-16.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Sampaense might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Illiabum than the current prediction. (-17.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Illiabum that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sampaense than the current prediction. (+17.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sampaense could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Illiabum - Sampaense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 80:69

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
10. Martinho J.	22. Bastos M.
12. Neto H.	11. Diop M.
30. Nunes F.	1. Iyaye A.
3. Rayquawndis M.	4. Marques A.
14. Sico M. (C)	31. Terry M.
Substitutes
35. Alves D.	12. Abrantes P.
44. Caldeira S.	2. Banaru V.
7. Costa P.	8. Goncalves D. (C)
15. Cristo R.	25. Quissanga S.
9. Lopes P.	6. Silva A.
99. Marques A.	0. Silva G.
20. Martins J.
Coaches
. Fechas C.	. Figueiredo C.

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Illiabum won 5.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Sampaense may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Sampaense has had a series of away games.

In this match, Illiabum is the obvious favorite.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Illiabum won 11 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 948:718. (average 86.2:65.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Illiabum won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 422:333. (average 84.4:66.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	L		Pts
5	Illiabum	2	1	1	142:136	3
7	Sampaense	2	1	1	167:170	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Illiabum Clube
Portuguese Proliga Basketball
20.12.25	Povoa - Illiabum	76:70 ✺
Taca de Portugal Basketball
14.12.25	Illiabum - Oliveirense	63:85 ✺
Portuguese Proliga Basketball
13.12.25	Illiabum - Alianca Sangalhos	90:66 ✺
07.12.25	Lusitânia - Illiabum	64:65 ✺
29.11.25	Illiabum - Académica Coimbra	90:58 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LLWWW
- Sampaense Basket
Portuguese Proliga Basketball
13.12.25	Maia - Sampaense	79:68 ✺
07.12.25	Povoa - Sampaense	73:50 ✺
29.11.25	Sampaense - Alianca Sangalhos	79:76 ✺
22.11.25	Lusitânia - Sampaense	87:46 ✺
15.11.25	Académica Coimbra - Sampaense	58:75 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Proliga Basketball
08.11.25	Sampaense - Illiabum	84:87 OT
04.01.25	Illiabum - Sampaense	87:75
09.11.24	Sampaense - Illiabum	56:94
06.01.24	Illiabum - Sampaense	88:57
28.10.23	Sampaense - Illiabum	63:84
28.01.23	Sampaense - Illiabum	56:98
26.11.22	Illiabum - Sampaense	78:60

Illiabum - Sampaense: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide