Match Info

EuroBasket - Round 4

Date: 2 September 2025, Tuesday

Location: Spyros Kyprianou Arena (Limassol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+, ESPN 3
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 2
Croatia	SportKlub 1
Czech-republic	CT sport
Finland	Ruutu+
France	beIN Sports MAX 4
Germany	Magenta Sport
Greece	Nova Sports Start
Italy	DAZN Italia
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport
Serbia	SportKlub 1
Slovenia	SportKlub 1
Spain	DAZN Espana, RTVE Play, Teledeporte
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV
World	Court Side 1891


	Italy		Spain

	1	2
	1.71	2.2	Watch
	1.67	2.2	Watch
	1.75	2.13	Watch
	1.72	2.17
	2.40	1.53	Watch
	1.67	2.1
	1.7	2.26
	1.79	2.03
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 ↑ (1.79)	2.08 ↑ (2.03)

The most likely Over/Under: 155.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-3)

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Italy
53.6%

Spain
46.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.1%

46.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.5%

46.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Italy has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Spain has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Italy than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Spain than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
38.7%	0%	61.3%

Italy - Spain Predictions

Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. Italy will win (votes: 12 - 40%). Spain will win (votes: 18 - 60%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Spain: 42.5% – 77.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 19 Selected Experts predict this event. Italy (votes: 9 - 47.4%). Spain (votes: 10 - 52.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 157.5, OT - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 149.5, OT - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 80:77

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
35. Diouf M. Virtus Bologna	7. Aldama S. Memphis Grizzlies
13. Fontecchio S. Detroit Pistons	3. De Larrea S. Valencia
9. Melli N. (C) Fenerbahce	14. Hernangomez W. (C) Barcelona
54. Pajola A. Virtus Bologna	44. Parra J. Barcelona
18. Spagnolo M. Alba Berlin	22. Yusta S. Zaragoza
Substitutes
45. Akele N. Virtus Bologna	8. Brizuela D. Barcelona
8. Gallinari D. Vaqueros de Bayamon	41. Hernangomez J. Panathinaikos
20. Niang S. Trento	6. Lopez-Arostegui X. Valencia
19. Procida G. Alba Berlin	4. Pradilla J. Valencia
17. Ricci G. Milano	2. Puerto J. Valencia
33. Spissu M. Zaragoza	5. Saint-Supery M. Manresa
15. Thompson D. Anadolu Efes	77. Sima Y. Unicaja
Coaches
. Pozzecco G.	. Scariolo S.

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Italy won 3.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Italy won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 494:486. (average 82.3:81).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Italy basketball
EuroBasket
31.08.25	Bosnia and Herzegovina - Italy	79:96 ✺
30.08.25	Italy - Georgia	78:62 ✺
28.08.25	Greece - Italy	75:66 ✺
Friendly International Basketball
22.08.25	Greece - Italy	76:74 ✺
21.08.25	Italy - Latvia	68:83 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 WWLLL
- Spain basketball
EuroBasket
31.08.25	Spain - Cyprus	91:47 ✺
30.08.25	Spain - Bosnia and Herzegovina	88:67 ✺
28.08.25	Georgia - Spain	83:69 ✺
Friendly International Basketball
23.08.25	Germany - Spain	95:78 ✺
21.08.25	Spain - Germany	105:106 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.1 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Friendly International Basketball
25.06.24	Spain - Italy	84:87 OT
World Championship Basketball
26.02.23	Spain - Italy	68:72
11.11.22	Italy - Spain	84:88 OT (70:70)
06.09.19	Spain - Italy	67:60
EuroBasket
08.09.15	Spain - Italy	98:105
16.09.13	Italy - Spain	86:81 OT (70:70)

Italy - Spain: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide