Match Info

Liga Uruguaya - Winners stage

Date: 30 March 2026, Monday

Location: Malvin (Montevideo)


	Malvín		Nacional

	1	2
			Watch
	2.6	1.36
	2.87	1.37
	2.63	1.42	Watch
	2.7	1.4
	2.44	1.44	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.65 ↓ (3.01)	1.4 ↑ (1.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 167.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-5)

The best margin for this event is 7.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Malvín
34.6%

Nacional
65.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.5%

69.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.6%

62.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Malvín has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Malvín than the current prediction. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (-3%)

Malvín - Nacional Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 82:87

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Guyton C.	33. Barrera B.
30. Martinez N.	4. Feldeine J.
33. Wachsmann K. (C)	23. Oglivie E.
11. Webster J.	10. Parodi L.
27. Zekovic D.	88. Thomas E.
Substitutes
18. Brun F.	8. Cabot M.
8. Espinosa E.	51. Espindola G.
15. Fernandez S.	20. Gomez P.
9. Gagliano C.	3. Mendez A.
34. Medina O.	2. Pereira F.
14. Rodriguez N.	21. Prieto P. (C)
13. Romero M.	22. Superi E.
Coaches
. Lopez P.	. Ponce A.

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Malvín won 3.

Malvín has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Nacional is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Nacional may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Nacional is the team to beat.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Malvín won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 1562:1645. (average 78.1:82.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Malvín won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 558:573. (average 79.7:81.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Club Malvín
Uruguayan Liga Basketball
26.03.26	Aguada - Malvín	88:64 ✺
23.03.26	Nacional - Malvín	88:90 ✺
19.03.26	Malvín - Peñarol de Montevideo	67:96 ✺
16.03.26	Malvín - Defensor Sporting	85:83 ✺
12.03.26	Malvín - Hebraica y Macabi	90:76 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 LWLWW
- Nacional Montevideo Basketball
Uruguayan Liga Basketball
26.03.26	Defensor Sporting - Nacional	68:80 ✺
23.03.26	Nacional - Malvín	88:90 ✺
19.03.26	Hebraica y Macabi - Nacional	80:111 ✺
Champions League Americas Basketball
14.03.26	Nacional - Paisas de Medellín	96:75 ✺
06.03.26	Paisas de Medellín - Nacional	94:97 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Liga Basketball
23.03.26	Nacional - Malvín	88:90
03.02.26	Nacional - Malvín	79:53
14.11.25	Malvín - Nacional	82:75
31.03.25	Nacional - Malvín	82:85
14.01.25	Malvín - Nacional	67:88
04.11.24	Nacional - Malvín	84:67
04.01.24	Malvín - Nacional	83:84

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