Match Info

PBA Commissioner's Cup - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 13 May 2026, Wednesday 🏁 Finished


	TNT Tropang 5G		NLEX Road Warriors

	1	2
			Watch
	1.33	3.1	Watch
	1.27	3.1
	1.37	2.98	Watch
	1.33	3.25
	1.31	3.31
	2.25	1.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.48 ↓ (2.25)	2.88 ↑ (1.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 197.00

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-8)

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

TNT Tropang 5G
66.1%

NLEX Road Warriors
33.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

40.8%

59.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.1%

52.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

TNT Tropang 5G has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+25.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in TNT Tropang 5G's performance.

NLEX Road Warriors has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-25.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and NLEX Road Warriors might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for TNT Tropang 5G than the current prediction. (-19%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with TNT Tropang 5G that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for NLEX Road Warriors than the current prediction. (+19%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that NLEX Road Warriors could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

TNT Tropang 5G - NLEX Road Warriors Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. TNT Tropang will win (votes: 6 - 75%). Road Warriors will win (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for TNT Tropang: 45% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 201.5, OT - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -6.5, OT - TNT Tropang (1.69) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. TNT Tropang (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 103:95

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Preview

NLEX Road Warriors leads series 1-0. First leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, TNT Tropang won 4.

TNT Tropang is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Road Warriors is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

TNT Tropang may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Road Warriors is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, TNT Tropang won 11 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 2024:1957. (average 101.2:97.9).

Including home matches between the teams, TNT Tropang won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 859:820. (average 107.4:102.5).

Last Results with these Odds

TNT Tropang 5G - the odds 2.25 are the expected chance of winning is 40.79%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- TNT Tropang 5G
Philippines - Commissioners Cup
10.05.26	Barangay Ginebra San Miguel - TNT Tropang 5G	93:86 ✺
05.05.26	TNT Tropang 5G - Magnolia Hotshots	94:106 ✺
01.05.26	TNT Tropang 5G - Phoenix Fuel Masters	97:100 OT ✺
24.04.26	TNT Tropang 5G - Macau Black Bears	119:112 ✺
22.04.26	Converge FiberXers - TNT Tropang 5G	97:92 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLLWL
- NLEX Road Warriors
Philippines - Commissioners Cup
05.05.26	NLEX Road Warriors - Titan Ultra Giant Risers	123:112 OT ✺
02.05.26	Converge FiberXers - NLEX Road Warriors	81:100 ✺
29.04.26	NLEX Road Warriors - Rain or Shine Elasto Painters	92:90 ✺
25.04.26	Terrafirma Dyip - NLEX Road Warriors	85:95 ✺
19.04.26	NLEX Road Warriors - San Miguel Beermen	94:101 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Philippines - Commissioners Cup
22.03.26	NLEX Road Warriors - TNT Tropang 5G	97:103
Philippines Cup
13.12.25	TNT Tropang 5G - NLEX Road Warriors	119:100
23.04.25	NLEX Road Warriors - TNT Tropang 5G	91:74
Philippines - Commissioners Cup
15.01.25	NLEX Road Warriors - TNT Tropang 5G	87:94
Philippines - Governors Cup
01.10.24	NLEX Road Warriors - TNT Tropang 5G	96:125
29.09.24	TNT Tropang 5G - NLEX Road Warriors	109:91
27.09.24	NLEX Road Warriors - TNT Tropang 5G	93:90

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