Match Info

Euroleague - Round 5

Date: 16 October 2025, Thursday

Location: Zalgirio Arena (Kaunas)

Referee: Baena A. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
France	SKWeek App
Germany	Magenta Sport
Greece	Nova Sports Start
Poland	Polsat Sport Extra 4
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Turkey	S Sport+
Ukraine	Setanta Sports+
World	EuroLeague TV


	Žalgiris Kaunas		Olimpia Milano

	1	2
	1.28	3.8	Watch
	1.32	3.5	Watch
	1.31	3.7
	1.17	4.67	Watch
	1.36	3.32	Watch
	1.5	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.32 ↓ (1.71)	3.57 ↑ (2.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 160.00

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-8)

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Žalgiris Kaunas
73%

Olimpia Milano
27%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.4%

44.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.1%

41.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Žalgiris Kaunas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+17.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Žalgiris Kaunas's performance.

Olimpia Milano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-17.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Olimpia Milano might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Žalgiris Kaunas than the current prediction. (-14.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Žalgiris Kaunas that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Olimpia Milano than the current prediction. (+14.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Olimpia Milano could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
86.7%	0%	13.3%

Žalgiris Kaunas - Olimpia Milano Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 158.5, OT - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -5, OT - Žalgiris (1.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Žalgiris Kaunas will win (26 of 29 users predict this - 89.66%).
Confidence interval (95%): 78.58% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Žalgiris Kaunas will win (9 of 9 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Žalgiris (votes: 10 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 84:76

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
3. Francisco S.	10. Bolmaro L.
14. Sleva D.	6. Booker D.
92. Ulanovas E.	1. Mannion N.
1. Williams-Goss N.	17. Ricci G.
7. Wright M.	31. Shields S.
Substitutes
15. Birutis L.	12. Brooks A.
8. Brazdeikis I.	25. Diop O.
51. Butkevicius A.	42. Dunston B.
12. Lo M.	3. Ellis Q.
17. Rubstavicius M.	21. Flaccadori D.
91. Sirvydis D.	23. Guduric M.
10. Tubelis A.	7. Tonut S.
Coaches
. Masiulis T.	. Messina E.

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Žalgiris won 4.

Žalgiris is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Olimpia Milano has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Olimpia Milano may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Žalgiris is considered a favorite.

We predict that Žalgiris will win today's game, with odds of 1.43.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Žalgiris won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 1583:1521. (average 79.2:76.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Žalgiris won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 801:766. (average 80.1:76.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Žalgiris Kaunas
Euroleague
14.10.25	Crvena Zvezda - Žalgiris Kaunas	88:79 ✺
10.10.25	Bayern München - Žalgiris Kaunas	70:98 ✺
Lietuvos Krepsinio Lyga
05.10.25	Žalgiris Kaunas - Juventus Utena	98:68 ✺
Euroleague
03.10.25	Žalgiris Kaunas - Fenerbahçe	84:81 ✺
01.10.25	AS Monaco Basket - Žalgiris Kaunas	84:89 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.2 LWWWW
- Olimpia Milano
Euroleague
14.10.25	Bayern München - Olimpia Milano	64:53 ✺
Italian Lega A Basketball
11.10.25	Varese - Olimpia Milano	61:94 ✺
Euroleague
09.10.25	Olimpia Milano - AS Monaco Basket	79:82 ✺
Italian Lega A Basketball
05.10.25	Olimpia Milano - Derthona Basket Tortona	71:74 ✺
Euroleague
02.10.25	Partizan Belgrade - Olimpia Milano	80:78 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Euroleague
06.02.25	Žalgiris Kaunas - Olimpia Milano	87:89
17.10.24	Olimpia Milano - Žalgiris Kaunas	82:85
28.03.24	Žalgiris Kaunas - Olimpia Milano	87:73
30.11.23	Olimpia Milano - Žalgiris Kaunas	70:83
13.01.23	Olimpia Milano - Žalgiris Kaunas	61:66
18.11.22	Žalgiris Kaunas - Olimpia Milano	71:62
08.02.22	Žalgiris Kaunas - Olimpia Milano	70:74

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