Match Info

Champions League - Preliminary - Round 2

Date: 16 September 2026, Wednesday

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	Arena Sport 5
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Serbia	Arena Sport 2
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1 Premium


	Vardar		HBC Nantes

	1	X	2
	3.4	9	1.52	Watch
	2.90	7.50	1.58
	3.1	8.75	1.52	Watch
	3.02	8.31	1.63	Watch
	3.15	9.55	1.47
	3.27	9.7	1.58	Watch
	3.3	10	1.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.16 ↓ (4.09)	8.97 ↓ (9.51)	1.54 ↑ (1.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 62.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-2)

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vardar
29.4%

Draw
10.4%

HBC Nantes
60.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.8%

9.8%

67.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.8%

9.4%

70.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vardar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Vardar's performance.

HBC Nantes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and HBC Nantes might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vardar than the current prediction. (-7.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Vardar that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for HBC Nantes than the current prediction. (+10.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that HBC Nantes could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Vardar - HBC Nantes Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 30:32

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Preview

Vardar is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Nantes is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Nantes will hold a modest advantage in this match.

We predict that Nantes will win today's game, with odds of 1.61.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Vardar won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 80:79. (average 26.7:26.3).

Including home match between the teams, Vardar won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 27:23.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HC Vardar Skopje
North Macedonian Superleague Handball
12.09.26	Kumanovo - Vardar	30:31
EHF Champions League
10.09.26	MT Melsungen - Vardar	33:31 ✺
North Macedonian Superleague Handball
04.09.26	Vardar - Eurofarm Pelister 2	32:18
Club Friendly Hanbdall
20.08.26	Vardar - Nexe	33:27
18.08.26	Vardar - Olympiacos	39:27
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 45.3 WLWWW
- HBC Nantes
French Starligue Handball
12.09.26	HBC Nantes - Pays dAix	38:28 ✺
EHF Champions League
09.09.26	HBC Nantes - Wisła Płock	26:25 ✺
French Starligue Handball
05.09.26	Tremblay - HBC Nantes	28:38 ✺
Club Friendly Hanbdall
26.08.26	HBC Nantes - Caen	34:22 ✺
23.08.26	Montpellier HB - HBC Nantes	29:33 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly Hanbdall
26.08.18	HBC Nantes - Vardar	29:27
EHF Champions League
25.02.18	HBC Nantes - Vardar	27:26
23.09.17	Vardar - HBC Nantes	27:23

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