Match Info

World Championship - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 30 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Swiss Life Arena (Zürich)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	ProSieben
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	RDS App, TSN+
Czech-republic	CT sport, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	MTV 3, MTV Katsomo+, Viaplay
Germany	Magenta Sport, ProSieben
Hungary	Sport 1
Iceland	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Polsat Box Go, Polsat Sport 1, Polsat Sport Premium 2
Romania	AntenaPLAY
Slovakia	JOJ Play, JOJ Sport
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	RSI La 2, RTS 2, RTS 2, SRF 2, SRF 2, SRF Play, SRF Play
Usa	NHL Network
World	IIHF TV


	Canada		Finland

	1	X	2
	2.05	4.2	3	Watch
	2.04	4	3.25	Watch
	1.99	3.89	3.21
	1.99	3.95	3.3	Watch
	1.85	4.2	3.1
	2	4.34	3.27	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.99 ↑ (1.69)	4.1 ↓ (4.54)	3.19 ↓ (4.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.00

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Canada
47.4%

Draw
23%

Finland
29.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.8%

20.8%

23.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55%

21.1%

23.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Canada has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Canada's form might have worsened.

Finland has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Finland's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Canada than the current prediction. (+7.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Canada, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Finland than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Finland, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
64%	12%	24%

Canada - Finland Predictions

Users Predictions: 25 users predict this event. Canada will win (votes: 16 - 64%). Finland will win (votes: 6 - 24%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 12%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Canada: 45.2% – 82.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Canada (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -2.5, OT - Canada (4.07) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Canada (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
73. Greaves J. (G) Columbus Blue Jackets	31. Annunen J. (G) Nashville Predators
5. Mateychuk D. Columbus Blue Jackets	58. Vaakanainen U. New York Rangers
29. Wotherspoon P. Pittsburgh Penguins	41. Heinola V. Winnipeg Jets
24. Cozens D. Ottawa Senators	94. Helenius K. Buffalo Sabres
71. Celebrini M. (C) San Jose Sharks	16. Barkov A. (C) Florida Panthers
87. Crosby S. (A) Pittsburgh Penguins	64. Granlund Mik. (A) Anaheim Ducks
Line 2
2. DeMelo D. Winnipeg Jets	10. Jokiharju H. Boston Bruins
44. Rielly M. Toronto Maple Leafs	4. Lehtonen M. Zurich
55. Scheifele M. Winnipeg Jets	92. Hameenaho L. New Jersey Devils
18. Thomas R. St. Louis Blues	15. Lundell A. Florida Panthers
81. Holloway D. St. Louis Blues	21. Puistola P. Frolunda
Line 3
28. Whitecloud Z. Calgary Flames	33. Matinpalo N. Ottawa Senators
25. Nurse D. Edmonton Oilers	3. Maatta O. (A) Calgary Flames
13. Vilardi G. Winnipeg Jets	13. Puljujarvi J. Servette
90. O'Reilly R. (A) Nashville Predators	34. Raty A. Vancouver Canucks
91. Tavares J. Toronto Maple Leafs	65. Manninen S. Servette
Line 4
6. Dickinson S. San Jose Sharks	18. Saarijarvi V. Servette
16. Brown C. New Jersey Devils	19. Merela W. Bern
93. Minten F. Boston Bruins	24. Bjorninen H. Langnau Tigers
94. Martone P. Philadelphia Flyers	80. Maenalanen S. Langnau Tigers
Substitutes
58. Finnie E. Detroit Red Wings	70. Korpisalo J. (G) Boston Bruins
33. Talbot C. (G) Detroit Red Wings	27. Kuokkanen J. Malmo
Coaches
. Donskov M.	. Pennanen A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (2 - 1)
03:30, 0 - 1, Puistola P. (G), Helenius K. (A),
08:17, 1 - 1, Thomas R. (G), Holloway D. (A), Mateychuk D. (A2)
14:26, 2 - 1, Holloway D. (G), Celebrini M. (A), DeMelo D. (A2)
18:04, Helenius K. (2 min),
2nd Period (0 - 3)
00:49, 2 - 2, Barkov A. (G), Granlund Mik. (A), Lehtonen M. (A2)
11:28, 2 - 3, Helenius K. (G), Granlund Mik. (A), Barkov A. (A2)
12:50, 2 - 4, Raty A. (G),
18:01, Raty A. (2 min),
3rd Period (0 - 0)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Canada won 4.

Canada has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Finland is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Canada could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Canada: Bouchard E. (Concussion) Dickinson S. (Off the roster) Ivankovic J. (Off the roster)

There will not play in Finland: Teravainen T. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Canada won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 50:52. (average 2.5:2.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Canada hockey
IIHF World Championship
28.05.26	Canada - USA	4:0 ✺
26.05.26	Czech Republic - Canada	2:3 ✺
24.05.26	Slovakia - Canada	1:5 ✺
22.05.26	Canada - Slovenia	3:1 ✺
21.05.26	Canada - Norway	6:5 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WWWWW
- Finland hockey
IIHF World Championship
28.05.26	Finland - Czech Republic	4:1 ✺
26.05.26	Switzerland - Finland	4:2 ✺
24.05.26	Finland - Austria	5:2 ✺
22.05.26	Finland - Great Britain	4:0 ✺
21.05.26	Latvia - Finland	1:7 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Winter Olympic Games - Ice Hockey
20.02.26	Canada - Finland	3:2
IIHF World Championship
19.05.25	Canada - Finland	1:2 penalties
NHL 4 Nations Face Off
17.02.25	Finland - Canada	3:5
IIHF World Championship
18.05.24	Canada - Finland	5:3
25.05.23	Canada - Finland	4:1
29.05.22	Finland - Canada	4:3 OT
Euro Hockey Tour - Channel One Cup
18.12.21	Finland - Canada	4:1

Canada - Finland: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide