Match Info

Championship

Date: 23 September 2026, Wednesday

Location: Karagandy-Arena (Karaganda)


	Saryarka		Arlan Kokshetau

	1	X	2
	1.62	4.75	3.50
	1.76	4.1	3.45	Watch
	1.57	4.95	4
	1.61	4.5	3.92	Watch
	1.55	4.75	3.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↓ (1.68)	4.61 ↑ (4.42)	3.74 ↑ (3.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.75

The best margin for this event is 8.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Saryarka
56%

Draw
19.7%

Arlan Kokshetau
24.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.8%

20.4%

25.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.7%

21.5%

24.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Saryarka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

Arlan Kokshetau has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Saryarka than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arlan Kokshetau than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Saryarka - Arlan Kokshetau Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
71. Zjuzin A. (G)	92. Yershov M. (G)
16. Borisevich A.	18. Basov K.
44. Durglishvili R.	39. Beisembiyev T.
61. Dyomin R.	97. Belyayev L.
22. Karaban D.	89. Erfurt K.
36. Korolinsky Y.	7. Ibrayev R.
17. Likhotnikov A. (A)	91. Ishchenko I.
98. Lyulko V.	17. Kasenov A.
96. Mikhaylov E.	22. Kisel I.
23. Namestnikov Y.	13. Korotin V. (A)
8. Nikulin V.	55. Kurakov A.
19. Palmtag K.	63. Puzanov A.
21. Polokhov K.	3. Royev S.
89. Ponomaryov K.	26. Sannikov S. (C)
95. Presnov D.	11. Shaporov I.
33. Shulga V.	47. Sharapov A.
3. Siksna E. (C)	15. Shegebayev A.
77. Smolyaninov Y.	10. Tarasenko V.
88. Stepanenko I. (A)	33. Zakharov Z.
15. Tusupbekov S.	88. Zalevsky B.
18. Volkov V.
Substitutes
30. Ibragimov Z. (G)	50. Istomin V. (G)
90. Kadochnikov D. (G)	90. Karatayev D. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 0)
2nd Period (3 - 1)
07:08, 1 - 0, Tusupbekov S. (G), Shulga V. (A), Palmtag K. (A2)
10:43, 2 - 0, Smolyaninov Y. (G), Karaban D. (A), Siksna E. (A2)
13:43, 2 - 1, Korotin V. (Penalty Shot),
18:40, 3 - 1, Karaban D. (G), Likhotnikov A. (A), Nikulin V. (A2)
3rd Period (2 - 1)
05:23, 3 - 2, Shegebayev A. (G), Korotin V. (A),
11:18, 4 - 2, Siksna E. (G), Borisevich A. (A), Likhotnikov A. (A2)
12:18, 5 - 2, Karaban D. (G), Likhotnikov A. (A), Siksna E. (A2)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Saryarka won 3.

In recent outings, Saryarka has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Arlan is on a roll with consecutive victories (last 5 matches: 5 wins).

Saryarka may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Arlan has had a run of games away from home.

Saryarka carries the favorite tag into this contest.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Saryarka has recorded 7 wins, 0 draws, and 13 losses, with a goal aggregate of 50:70 (averaging 2.5:3.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Saryarka against this opponent, the record stands at 5 wins, 0 draws, and 8 losses, with 40:47 goals (averaging 3.1:3.6 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
3	Kokshetau	18	12	1	1	4	64:43	27
5	Karaganda	18	10	1	2	5	73:44	24

Last Results with these Odds

Saryarka - the odds 1.68 are the expected chance of winning is 53.84%, but this team recently wins 88% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HC Saryarka
Kazakh Ice Hockey Championship
22.09.26	Saryarka - Arlan Kokshetau	0:5 AWA. ✺
17.09.26	Almaty - Saryarka	2:5 ✺
16.09.26	Almaty - Saryarka	6:3 ✺
11.09.26	Saryarka - Torpedo Ust-Kamenogorsk	2:3 penalties ✺
10.09.26	Saryarka - Torpedo Ust-Kamenogorsk	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 LWLLW
- Arlan Kokshetau
Kazakh Ice Hockey Championship
22.09.26	Saryarka - Arlan Kokshetau	0:5 AWA. ✺
16.09.26	Beibarys Atyrau - Arlan Kokshetau	0:1 ✺
15.09.26	Beibarys Atyrau - Arlan Kokshetau	1:3 ✺
12.09.26	Aktobe - Arlan Kokshetau	4:5 ✺
11.09.26	Aktobe - Arlan Kokshetau	2:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh Ice Hockey Championship
22.09.26	Saryarka - Arlan Kokshetau	0:5 AWA.
03.02.26	Saryarka - Arlan Kokshetau	5:2
02.02.26	Saryarka - Arlan Kokshetau	5:4
25.10.25	Saryarka - Arlan Kokshetau	5:2
24.10.25	Saryarka - Arlan Kokshetau	3:4 OT
22.09.25	Arlan Kokshetau - Saryarka	1:2 OT
21.09.25	Arlan Kokshetau - Saryarka	4:5

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