What is the expert prediction for USA W vs Canada W?

Our statistical model provides live predictions including win probabilities and estimated scores for USA W vs Canada W. Follow the link for detailed analytics.

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USA W vs Canada W Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Thursday, February 19, 2026)

Match Info

Olympic Games Women - Play Offs - Final

Date: 19 February 2026, Thursday

Location: Santa Giulia Ice Hockey Arena (Milan)

Where to Watch on TV:


Belgium	HBO Max, HBO Max
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	HBO Max
Bulgaria	HBO Max
Croatia	HBO Max
Czech-republic	CT sport, Eurosport 2, HBO Max, Oneplay
Denmark	DR 2, DR TV, HBO Max
Finland	HBO Max
France	HBO Max
Hungary	HBO Max
Moldova	HBO Max
Montenegro	HBO Max
Netherlands	HBO Max
North-macedonia	HBO Max
Norway	HBO Max
Poland	HBO Max, TVP Sport
Romania	HBO Max
Serbia	HBO Max
Slovakia	STVR Sport
Slovenia	HBO Max
Spain	HBO Max
Sweden	HBO Max
Switzerland	SRF 2, SRF 2
Ukraine	Suspilne Sport
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+
Usa	NBC Sports App, Peacock


	USA W		Canada W

	1	X	2
	1.36	5.55	6.75
	1.38	5.28	6.88
	1.38	5.24	6.81	Watch
	1.33	5.5	6.5
	1.37	5.8	7
	1.38	5	6.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.37 ↓ (1.39)	5.4 ↑ (5.25)	6.78 ↑ (6.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.25

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

USA W
68.7%

Draw
17.4%

Canada W
13.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.3%

17.8%

14.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.3%

19.5%

16.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

USA W has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Canada W has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for USA W than the current prediction. (-7.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with USA W that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Canada W than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
93.7%	6.2%	0%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. USA will win (votes: 15 - 93.8%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 6.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for USA: 82% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5, 1st Period - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): USA W will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 4:1

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Lineups

Line 1
31. Frankel A. (G) Boston Fleet	35. Desbiens A. (G) Montreal Victoire
10. Edwards L.	14. Fast R. Toronto Sceptres
5. Keller M. (A) Boston Fleet	3. Larocque J. (A) Ottawa Charge
21. Knight H. (C) USA	10. Fillier S. New York Sirens
25. Carpenter A. (A) Seattle Torrent	29. Poulin M. (C) Montreal Victoire
24. Dunne J.	95. Watts D. Toronto Sceptres
Line 2
8. Winn H. Boston Fleet	2. Jaques S. Vancouver Goldeneyes
4. Harvey C.	17. Shelton E. Toronto Sceptres
37. Murphy A.	7. Stacey L. Montreal Victoire
27. Heise T. Minnesota Frost	40. Turnbull B. (A) Toronto Sceptres
23. Bilka H. Seattle Torrent	26. Clark E. Ottawa Charge
Line 3
3. Barnes C. Seattle Torrent	23. Ambrose E. Montreal Victoire
2. Stecklein L. Minnesota Frost	42. Thompson C. Vancouver Goldeneyes
13. Zumwinkle G. Minnesota Frost	19. Jenner B. Ottawa Charge
12. Pannek K. Minnesota Frost	20. Nurse S. Vancouver Goldeneyes
26. Coyne Schofield K. Minnesota Frost	27. Maltais E. Toronto Sceptres
Line 4
6. Guilday R. Ottawa Charge	4. Tabin K. Montreal Victoire
9. Simms K.	24. Spooner N. Toronto Sceptres
22. Janecke T.	43. O'Neill K. New York Sirens
17. Curl-Salemme B. Minnesota Frost	88. Gosling J. Seattle Torrent
Substitutes
33. Philips G. (G) Ottawa Charge	94. Gardiner J. Vancouver Goldeneyes
16. Scamurra H. Montreal Victoire	38. Maschmeyer E. (G) Vancouver Goldeneyes
Coaches
. Wroblewski J.	. Ryan T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 0)
05:33, (2 min),
15:05, Dunne J. (2 min),
19:45, Shelton E. (2 min),
2nd Period (0 - 1)
00:54, 0 - 1, O'Neill K. (G), Stacey L. (A), Fast R. (A2)
3rd Period (1 - 0)
13:37, Curl-Salemme B. (2 min),
17:56, 1 - 1, Knight H. (G), Edwards L. (A), Keller M. (A2)
Overtime (1 - 0)
04:07, 2 - 1, Keller M. (G), Heise T. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, USA won 5.

USA is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Canada is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Canada may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, USA is the obvious favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, USA won 11 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 68:56. (average 3.4:2.8).

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Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- USA W hockey
Winter Olympic Games - Ice Hockey Women
16.02.26	USA W - Sweden W	5:0 ✺
13.02.26	USA W - Italy W	6:0 ✺
10.02.26	Canada W - USA W	0:5 ✺
09.02.26	Switzerland W - USA W	0:5 ✺
07.02.26	USA W - Finland W	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WWWWW
- Canada W hockey
Winter Olympic Games - Ice Hockey Women
16.02.26	Canada W - Switzerland W	2:1 ✺
14.02.26	Canada W - Germany W	5:1 ✺
12.02.26	Finland W - Canada W	0:5 ✺
10.02.26	Canada W - USA W	0:5 ✺
09.02.26	Canada W - Czech Republic W	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Winter Olympic Games - Ice Hockey Women
10.02.26	Canada W - USA W	0:5
Friendly International Hockey Women
13.12.25	Canada W - USA W	1:4
10.12.25	Canada W - USA W	4:10
08.11.25	USA W - Canada W	6:1
06.11.25	USA W - Canada W	4:1
IIHF World Championship Women
20.04.25	USA W - Canada W	4:3 OT
13.04.25	Canada W - USA W	1:2

USA W - Canada W: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide