Match Info

STRAWWEIGHT - WOMEN: UFC

Date: 11 October 2025, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Farmasi Arena (Rio de Janeiro) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Australia	07:30	ESPN
Poland	22:30	Polsat Sport 1, Polsat Sport Premium 1


	Julia Polastri		Karolina Kowalkiewicz

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Julia Polastri
82.7%

Karolina Kowalkiewicz
17.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

23.6%

76.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Julia Polastri has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+59.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Julia Polastri's performance.

Karolina Kowalkiewicz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-59.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Karolina Kowalkiewicz might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Polastri will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Kowalkiewicz (votes: 1 - 100%).

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In this match, Polastri is the undisputed favorite.

The fighters have not played against each other recently.

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Julia Polastri
MMA
29.03.25	Lupita Godinez - Julia Polastri	Godinez L. win ✺
12.10.24	Julia Polastri - Cory McKenna	Polastri J. win ✺
15.06.24	Josefine Knutsson - Julia Polastri	Knutsson J. win ✺
23.03.24	Stephanie Luciano - Julia Polastri	Canceled ✺
02.03.24	Josefine Knutsson - Julia Polastri	Canceled ✺
- Karolina Kowalkiewicz
MMA
09.11.24	Karolina Kowalkiewicz - Denise Gomes	Gomes D. win ✺
04.05.24	Karolina Kowalkiewicz - Iasmin Lucindo	Lucindo I. win ✺
07.10.23	Karolina Kowalkiewicz - Diana Belbita	Kowalkiewicz K. win ✺
20.05.23	Karolina Kowalkiewicz - Vane Demopoulos	Kowalkiewicz K. win ✺
12.11.22	Karolina Kowalkiewicz - Silvana Gómez Juárez	Kowalkiewicz K. win ✺

Julia Polastri - Karolina Kowalkiewicz