Match Info

Pro D2 - Round 28

Date: 24 April 2026, Friday


	Carcassonne		Béziers

	1	X	2
	1.62	21	2.38
	1.67	25	2.21
	1.62	22.75	2.41
	1.6	21	2.3
	1.63	26	2.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.63 ↓ (1.92)	23.15 ↑ (18.19)	2.33 ↑ (1.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 54.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-2)

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carcassonne
56.5%

Draw
4%

Béziers
39.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.4%

47.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carcassonne has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Carcassonne's performance.

Béziers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Béziers might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carcassonne than the current prediction. (-9.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Carcassonne that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Béziers than the current prediction. (+8.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Béziers could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Carcassonne - Béziers Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 28:26

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (10 - 15)
2nd Half (10 - 15)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Carcassonne won 3.

Both teams are struggling and far from their best.

Carcassonne is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Carcassonne won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 400:460. (average 20:23).

Including home matches between the teams, Carcassonne won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 227:181. (average 25.2:20.1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
11	Beziers	5	2	0	3	103:168	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Carcassonne
French Pro D2
17.04.26	Colomiers - Carcassonne	59:28 ✺
10.04.26	Carcassonne - FC Grenoble	25:22 ✺
03.04.26	SA XV Charente - Carcassonne	52:13 ✺
27.03.26	Carcassonne - Mont-De-Marsan	28:29 ✺
06.03.26	Agen - Carcassonne	54:17 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LWLLL
- AS Béziers
French Pro D2
17.04.26	Béziers - Provence Rugby	30:31 ✺
10.04.26	Vannes - Béziers	71:0 ✺
03.04.26	Nevers - Béziers	44:41 ✺
27.03.26	Béziers - Agen	32:13 ✺
06.03.26	Mont-De-Marsan - Béziers	41:24 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

French Pro D2
03.10.25	Béziers - Carcassonne	31:19
24.03.23	Béziers - Carcassonne	18:17
09.09.22	Carcassonne - Béziers	26:24
12.05.22	Béziers - Carcassonne	14:16
02.12.21	Carcassonne - Béziers	24:18
23.04.21	Carcassonne - Béziers	31:28
18.12.20	Béziers - Carcassonne	28:17

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