Match Info

NPC - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 16 October 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Semenoff Stadium (Whangarei) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Australia	17:10	Stan Sport


	Northland		Otago

	1	X	2
	2.41	25	1.58
	2.3	21	1.57	Watch
	2.3	23	1.54
	2.41	26	1.57
	2.43	25	1.59
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.37 ↑ (2.1)	24 ↑ (21)	1.57 ↓ (1.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 56.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-4)

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Northland
38.3%

Draw
3.8%

Otago
57.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

43.2%

4.3%

52.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.4%

3.9%

57.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Northland has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

Otago has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Otago's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Northland than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Otago than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Northland - Otago Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Otago will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Otago (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 26:30

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (17 - 14)
2nd Half (21 - 5)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Northland won 1.

Currently, both sides are showing commendable stability on the pitch.

Northland may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Otago is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 13 head-to-head meetings, Northland has recorded 4 wins, 0 draws, and 9 losses, with a goal aggregate of 325:371 (averaging 25:28.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Northland against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, with 170:180 goals (averaging 28.3:30 per game).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Northland
New Zealand NPC
09.10.26	Northland - Tasman	26:21 ✺
02.10.26	Southland - Northland	14:28 ✺
25.09.26	Northland - Counties Manukau	19:22 ✺
19.09.26	Wellington - Northland	28:52 ✺
12.09.26	Northland - Waikato	34:17 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WWLWW
- Otago
New Zealand NPC
09.10.26	Otago - Hawkes Bay	50:14 ✺
01.10.26	Otago - Auckland	45:42 ✺
26.09.26	North Harbour - Otago	32:21 ✺
17.09.26	Counties Manukau - Otago	21:50 ✺
11.09.26	Otago - Tasman	55:33 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

New Zealand NPC
05.09.25	Otago - Northland	29:10
04.10.24	Northland - Otago	28:31
10.09.23	Otago - Northland	30:15
15.10.21	Northland - Otago	13:24
20.11.20	Otago - Northland	19:32
23.10.20	Otago - Northland	30:7
12.10.19	Northland - Otago	40:10

Northland - Otago: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide