Match Info

NPC - Round 9

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: North Harbour Stadium (Auckland) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Australia	17:10	Stan Sport
International	07:10	RugbyPass TV


	North Harbour		Otago

	1	X	2
	2.9	27	1.41
	2.88	21	1.4	Watch
	3	30	1.4
	2.78	21	1.49
	2.9	27	1.41
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.89 ↑ (2.34)	25.2 ↓ (28)	1.42 ↓ (1.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 63.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-7)

The best margin for this event is 7.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

North Harbour
31.8%

Draw
3.6%

Otago
64.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

39.8%

3.3%

56.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.5%

3.5%

53.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

North Harbour has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that North Harbour's form might have worsened.

Otago has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Otago's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for North Harbour than the current prediction. (+10.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for North Harbour, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Otago than the current prediction. (-11.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Otago, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

North Harbour - Otago Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Otago (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 29:36

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (10 - 14)
2nd Half (22 - 7)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, North Harbour won 3.

North Harbour has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Otago is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Otago could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, North Harbour has recorded 3 wins, 0 draws, and 7 losses, with a goal aggregate of 211:299 (averaging 21.1:29.9 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for North Harbour against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, with 116:138 goals (averaging 23.2:27.6 per game).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- North Harbour
New Zealand NPC
19.09.26	North Harbour - Canterbury	24:25 ✺
12.09.26	Hawkes Bay - North Harbour	24:31 ✺
06.09.26	North Harbour - Northland	57:42 ✺
29.08.26	Manawatu - North Harbour	43:40 ✺
22.08.26	North Harbour - Auckland	27:19 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 LWWLW
- Otago
New Zealand NPC
17.09.26	Counties Manukau - Otago	21:50 ✺
11.09.26	Otago - Tasman	55:33 ✺
04.09.26	Hawkes Bay - Otago	35:24 ✺
29.08.26	Otago - Waikato	43:38 ✺
23.08.26	Otago - Wellington	61:22 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

New Zealand NPC
26.09.25	Otago - North Harbour	41:26
06.09.23	North Harbour - Otago	27:24
21.09.19	North Harbour - Otago	15:21
17.08.17	North Harbour - Otago	19:17
28.10.16	Otago - North Harbour	14:17
16.09.16	Otago - North Harbour	24:13
01.10.15	North Harbour - Otago	32:39

North Harbour - Otago: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide