Match Info

Top 14 - Round 12

Date: 20 December 2025, Saturday

Location: Stade Jean Bouin (Paris)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	CANAL+ Sport
United-kingdom	FloSports app


	Stade Français		Racing Métro

	1	X	2
	1.22	26	4.33
	1.23	27	4.2
	1.23	25.81	4.76	Watch
	1.2	26	4.5
	1.22	29	4.4
	1.2	29	4.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.22 ↓ (1.55)	27.14 ↑ (18.48)	4.42 ↑ (2.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 48.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-11)

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stade Français
75.8%

Draw
3.4%

Racing Métro
20.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.7%

5.1%

34.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.4%

5.1%

34.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stade Français has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Stade Français's performance.

Racing Métro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Racing Métro might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stade Français than the current prediction. (-15.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Stade Français that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Racing Métro than the current prediction. (+13.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Racing Métro could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Stade Français - Racing Métro Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 30:19

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Abramishvili S.	1. Gogichashvili G.
2. Nicotera G.	2. Escobar D.
3. Alo-Emile P.	3. Kharaishvili G.
4. Gabrillagues P.	4. Hill J.
5. Pesenti B.	5. Taofifenua R.
6. Halaifonua T.	6. Baudonne M.
7. Briatte R.	7. Lainault T.
8. Tanga Mangene Y.	8. Hughes N.
9. Abadie P.	9. Carbonneau L.
10. Carbonel L.	10. Seunes U.
11. Ezeala S.	11. Hulleu W.
12. Nene N.	12. Tuisova J.
13. Ward J. C.	13. Habosi V.
14. Dakuwaqa P.	14. Fickou G.
15. Barre L.	15. James S.
Substitutes
16. Peyresblanques L.	16. Basse Y.
17. Alo-Emile M.	17. Kolingar H.
18. Azagoh P.	18. Sanconnie F.
19. Hirigoyen M.	19. Tagitagivalu L.
20. Motassi T.	20. Gibert A.
21. Macalou S.	21. Manu J.
22. Marchant J.	22. Pricsiantelli G.
23. Melikidze G.	23. Bamba D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (10 - 8)
7', Hughes N. (Try),
7', Pesenti B. 🟨,
10', Carbonel L. (Penalty Goal),
23', Seunes U. (Drop Goal),
26', Escobar D. 🟨,
27', (Penalty Try),
2nd Half (10 - 12)
44', Briatte R. 🟨,
44', Hill J. 🟨,
58', Fickou G. (Try),
58', Seunes U. (Conversion Goal),
61', Carbonel L. (Penalty Goal),
69', Hulleu W. (Try),
78', Manu J. 🟨,
80+5', Melikidze G. (Try),
80+6', Carbonel L. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Top 14 (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Stade Français won 2.

Recent performances by Stade Français have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Racing Métro is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Racing Métro may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Stade Français is seen as the favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Stade Français won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 462:528. (average 23.1:26.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Stade Français won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 216:254. (average 19.6:23.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stade Français
Challenge Cup Rugby
13.12.25	Cheetahs - Stade Français	22:45 ✺
06.12.25	Stade Français - Cardiff Rugby	38:17 ✺
French Top 14
29.11.25	Clermont - Stade Français	36:32 ✺
23.11.25	Stade Français - Toulon	51:24 ✺
01.11.25	Toulouse - Stade Français	29:17 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 WWLWL
- Racing Métro 92
Challenge Cup Rugby
14.12.25	Racing Métro - Exeter Chiefs	31:31 ✺
05.12.25	Ulster - Racing Métro	61:7 ✺
French Top 14
29.11.25	Toulouse - Racing Métro	48:24 ✺
22.11.25	Racing Métro - Aviron Bayonnais	47:27 ✺
02.11.25	La Rochelle - Racing Métro	33:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 TLLWL

Latest Head to Head

French Top 14
27.04.25	Racing Métro - Stade Français	49:24
24.11.24	Stade Français - Racing Métro	40:24
24.02.24	Racing Métro - Stade Français	11:27
18.11.23	Stade Français - Racing Métro	9:13
03.06.23	Stade Français - Racing Métro	20:33
26.03.23	Stade Français - Racing Métro	13:17
24.12.22	Racing Métro - Stade Français	10:48

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