Match Info

Top 14 - Round 9

Date: 1 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Stade Ernest-Wallon (Toulouse)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	CANAL+ France
United-kingdom	FloSports app, Premier Sports Player, Premier Sports Rugby


	Toulouse		Stade Français

	1	X	2
	1.14	34	5.5
	1.11	30	6.4
	1.05	38.71	11.10	Watch
	1.15	34	5.53
	1.14	29	6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.12 ↑ (1.05)	33.14 ↓ (38.71)	6.91 ↓ (11.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 54.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-14)

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toulouse
83.6%

Draw
2.8%

Stade Français
13.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

89.1%

2.4%

8.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toulouse has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Toulouse's form might have worsened.

Stade Français has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Stade Français's recent form is better than expected.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Toulouse - Stade Français Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Toulouse will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 34:20

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Neti R.	1. Iscaro J.
2. Lacombre T.	2. Nicotera G.
3. Ainuu D.	3. Alo-Emile P.
4. Elias E.	4. Gabrillagues P.
5. Verge C.	5. Azagoh P.
6. Willis J.	6. Halaifonua T.
7. Roumat A.	7. Briatte R.
8. Ntamack T.	8. Macalou S.
9. Graou P.	9. Kerr-Barlow T.
10. Mallia J.	10. Carbonel L.
11. Delibes D.	11. Ezeala S.
12. Ahki P.	12. Nene N.
13. Chocobares S.	13. Ward J. C.
14. Capuozzo A.	14. Laloi C.
15. Kinghorn B.	15. Barre L.
Substitutes
16. Faimanifo M.	16. Peyresblanques L.
17. Baille C.	17. Paiva T.
18. Martin Bonnard R.	18. Pesenti B.
19. Portat R.	19. Petelo-Mapu I.
20. Castro-Ferreira M.	20. Motassi T.
21. Gourgues K.	21. Etien L.
22. Thomas T.	22. Ibo M.
23. Merkler J.	23. Melikidze G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 10)
13', Azagoh P. 🟨,
26', Carbonel L. (Penalty Goal),
28', Nene N. (Try),
28', Carbonel L. (Conversion Goal),
40', Kinghorn B. (Penalty Goal),
2nd Half (26 - 7)
43', Willis J. (Try),
43', Gabrillagues P. 🟨,
57', Kinghorn B. (Try),
57', Capuozzo A. (Conversion Goal),
61', Kinghorn B. (Try),
61', Gourgues K. (Conversion Goal),
73', Halaifonua T. 🟨,
77', Kinghorn B. (Try),
77', Roumat A. (Conversion Goal),
79', Carbonel L. (Try),
79', Barre L. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Top 14 (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Top 14 (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toulouse won 3.

Toulouse has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Stade Français is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

In this match, Toulouse is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toulouse won 12 matches, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 558:423. (average 27.9:21.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Toulouse won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 340:168. (average 37.8:18.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stade Toulousain
French Top 14
26.10.25	Toulouse - Toulon	59:24 ✺
18.10.25	Section Paloise - Toulouse	30:26 ✺
12.10.25	Toulouse - Bordeaux Bègles	56:13 ✺
05.10.25	Aviron Bayonnais - Toulouse	40:26 ✺
27.09.25	Toulouse - Castres	59:12 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 WLWLW
- Stade Français
French Top 14
25.10.25	Stade Français - Montpellier	35:12 ✺
18.10.25	Castres - Stade Français	29:24 ✺
11.10.25	Stade Français - La Rochelle	26:24 ✺
04.10.25	Perpignan - Stade Français	11:28 ✺
27.09.25	Stade Français - Bordeaux Bègles	28:7 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

French Top 14
20.04.25	Stade Français - Toulouse	21:27
29.12.24	Toulouse - Stade Français	38:23
12.05.24	Toulouse - Stade Français	49:18
03.12.23	Stade Français - Toulouse	27:12
22.04.23	Stade Français - Toulouse	19:10
05.11.22	Toulouse - Stade Français	16:16
06.03.22	Stade Français - Toulouse	23:16

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