Match Info

SWITZERLAND: Promotion League

Date: 17 April 2024, Wednesday

Referee: Rosset S. (Sui)


	Étoile Carouge		Basel II

	1	X	2
	1.44	4.4	5.25
	1.42	4.75	5.5
	1.46	4.68	5.72
	1.47	4.68	5.72
	1.42	4.6	5.71
	1.42	4.6	5.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.44 ↓ (1.48)	4.62 ↑ (4.59)	5.55 ↑ (5.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Étoile Carouge
63.7%

Draw
19.8%

Basel II
16.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.4%

20.1%

17.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.4%

19.2%

16.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Étoile Carouge has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Basel II has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Étoile Carouge than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Basel II than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Étoile Carouge - Basel II Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Antonio S. (G) 22. Rufli V. 8. Chappuis A. (C) 13. Zoukit N. 9. Eleouet A. 4. Magnin M. 17. Vieira M. 24. Kursner R. 7. Correia O. 10. Caslei B. 25. Felder V.	1. Spagnoli A. (G) 2. Jordan E. 4. Klose T. (C) 5. Akahomen M. 3. Vogel H. 6. Pepsi G. 7. Akale A. 8. Xhemalija D. 10. Frokaj L. 11. Ze J. 9. Kayombo A.
Substitutes
12. Adeagbo E. 6. El Jaouhari M. 14. Hysenaj F. 27. Munishi H. 30. Ninte M. 80. Oberli B. 99. Zbinden L. (G)	12. Chirao N. 16. Dundas N. 18. Emch C. (G) 14. Selmonaj J. 15. Senaya E. 17. Sow C. 13. Trondle K.
Coaches
Ursea A.	Cantaluppi M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
3', 0 - 1, Frokaj L. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
56', 1 - 1, Magnin M. (Pen),
57', 2 - 1, Correia O. ⚽,
66', Zoukit N. ↓, El Jaouhari M. ↑,
66', Eleouet A. ↓, Ninte M. ↑,
67', Frokaj L. ↓, Dundas N. ↑,
67', Jordan E. ↓, Selmonaj J. ↑,
75', Rufli V. ↓, Oberli B. ↑,
75', Ninte M. ↓, Hysenaj F. ↑,
75', Akale A. ↓, Senaya E. ↑,
81', Caslei B. ↓, Munishi H. ↑,
84', Correia O. 🟨,
90', 🟨,
90+5', 2 - 2, Spagnoli A. ⚽,

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will play in this match (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Challenge League and 15).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Étoile won 2.

Étoile is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Basel II is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Étoile is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's Étoile to win the game is with odds 1.46.

Last 11 head-to-head matches Étoile won 4 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 20-22.

Including matches at home between the teams Étoile won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 12-10.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Étoile Carouge
Swiss Promotion League
13.04.24	Biel-Bienne - Étoile Carouge	0:1 ✺
06.04.24	Étoile Carouge - Lugano II	3:2 ✺
23.03.24	Étoile Carouge - Servette U21	3:2 ✺
17.03.24	Delémont - Étoile Carouge	3:2 ✺
09.03.24	Kriens - Étoile Carouge	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WWWLW
- Basel II
Swiss Promotion League
13.04.24	Basel II - Cham	3:2 ✺
06.04.24	Bavois - Basel II	1:0 ✺
23.03.24	Paradiso - Basel II	1:1 ✺
16.03.24	Basel II - St. Gallen II	2:2 ✺
09.03.24	Rapperswil-Jona - Basel II	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WLTTL

Latest Head to Head

Swiss Promotion League
14.02.24	Basel II - Étoile Carouge	2:0
07.05.23	Basel II - Étoile Carouge	1:1
29.10.22	Étoile Carouge - Basel II	4:1
20.04.22	Basel II - Étoile Carouge	1:1
09.10.21	Étoile Carouge - Basel II	2:1
08.05.21	Étoile Carouge - Basel II	4:4
31.08.19	Basel II - Étoile Carouge	1:3

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