Match Info

Campionato Sammarinese - Round 23

Date: 1 March 2026, Sunday


	AC Libertas		Folgore

	1	X	2
	7.1	4.35	1.36	Watch
	7.07	4.58	1.34
	7.45	4.58	1.36
	9	4	1.33
	9.35	4.5	1.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	7.99 ↑ (7.47)	4.4 ↓ (4.42)	1.34 ↓ (1.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AC Libertas
11.4%

Draw
20.7%

Folgore
68%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

12.2%

20.6%

67.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

11.8%

19.9%

69.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AC Libertas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Folgore has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AC Libertas than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Folgore than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

AC Libertas - Folgore Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
24', 1 - 0, Fabbri P. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 4)
48', 1 - 1, Garcia Rufer A. ⚽, Toure Y. (A),
49', 1 - 2, Garcia Rufer A. ⚽,
57', 1 - 3, Baiardi R. (Own goal),
71', 1 - 4, Raschi J. ⚽, Gaido G. (A),
89', 2 - 4, Miori M. (Own goal),

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 10 in the zone Promotion ~ Campionato Sammarinese (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Campionato Sammarinese (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, AC Libertas won 0.

In recent matches, AC Libertas has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Folgore is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In this match, Folgore is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, AC Libertas won 2 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 14:20. (average 1.2:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, AC Libertas won 0 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:7. (average 0.8:1.2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Folgore	4	4	0	0	10:1	9	12
8	Libertas	4	1	2	1	4:5	-1	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AC Libertas
San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
21.02.26	La Fiorita - AC Libertas	2:2 ✺
15.02.26	AC Libertas - Faetano	2:1 ✺
11.02.26	Virtus - AC Libertas	3:1 ✺
07.02.26	AC Libertas - Murata	3:1 ✺
01.02.26	San Giovanni - AC Libertas	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.7 TWLWT
- Folgore Falciano Calcio
San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
21.02.26	Pennarossa - Folgore	2:3 ✺
15.02.26	Folgore - Tre Fiori	2:2 ✺
11.02.26	Folgore - Domagnano	2:1 ✺
08.02.26	Fiorentino - Folgore	0:4 ✺
31.01.26	Folgore - Murata	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 WTWWW

Latest Head to Head

San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
01.11.25	Folgore - AC Libertas	6:1
19.04.25	Folgore - AC Libertas	3:0
21.12.24	AC Libertas - Folgore	0:1
20.02.24	Folgore - AC Libertas	1:1
28.10.23	AC Libertas - Folgore	2:2
21.01.23	Folgore - AC Libertas	2:3
04.09.22	AC Libertas - Folgore	0:0

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