Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 16 - Round 33

Date: 3 May 2026, Sunday


	Agoncillo		Arnedo

	1	X	2
	3.8	3.2	1.97
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.8 ↑ (2.65)	3.2 (3.2)	1.97 ↓ (2.16)

The best margin for this event is 8.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Agoncillo
24.3%

Draw
28.8%

Arnedo
46.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.7%

27.1%

40.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.1%

25.8%

42.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Agoncillo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Agoncillo's form might have worsened.

Arnedo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Arnedo's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Agoncillo than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Agoncillo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arnedo than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
37', 0 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
58', 0 - 2, ⚽,
70', 1 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 8 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Tercera RFEF ~ Group 16 (Play Offs: )).

In recent matches, Agoncillo has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Arnedo is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Agoncillo won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:5. (average 0.3:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Agoncillo won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 0:4. (average 0:2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Agoncillo	5	2	2	1	12:8	4	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Agoncillo
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 16
19.04.26	Agoncillo - La Calzada	1:1 ✺
12.04.26	Varea - Agoncillo	3:1 ✺
01.04.26	Agoncillo - Peña Balsamaiso	4:1 ✺
29.03.26	Autol - Agoncillo	0:2 ✺
21.03.26	Agoncillo - Berceo	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 TLWWT
- CD Arnedo
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 16
19.04.26	Calahorra - Arnedo	1:1 ✺
12.04.26	Arnedo - Comillas	2:0 ✺
02.04.26	Vianés - Arnedo	1:1 ✺
29.03.26	Arnedo - Yagüe	3:0 ✺
21.03.26	Arnedo - San Marcial	7:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 TWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 16
04.01.26	Arnedo - Agoncillo	1:1
13.02.22	Agoncillo - Arnedo	0:3
08.09.18	Agoncillo - Arnedo	0:1

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