Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 16 - Round 30

Date: 12 April 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished


	Varea		Agoncillo

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.2	4.15
	1.91	3.16	3.96
	1.55	3.9	5.4
	1.85	3.1	4
	1.83	3.16	4.19
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.79 ↑ (1.61)	3.3 ↓ (3.52)	4.34 ↓ (5.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Varea
51.2%

Draw
27.7%

Agoncillo
21.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

56.2%

25.8%

17.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.8%

25.1%

17.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Varea has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

Agoncillo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Varea than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Varea, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Agoncillo than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

Varea - Agoncillo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (3 - 1)
53', 1 - 0, ⚽,
64', 2 - 0, ⚽,
86', 2 - 1, ⚽,
90+3', 3 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Tercera RFEF ~ Group 16 (Play Offs: ) and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Varea won 3.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

In this match, Varea is the obvious favorite.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Varea won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 18:9. (average 1.8:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Varea won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 14:4. (average 2.8:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Varea	8	4	4	0	7:3	4	16
10	Agoncillo	8	3	3	2	17:12	5	12

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Varea
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 16
01.04.26	Villegas - Varea	0:1 ✺
29.03.26	Varea - Calahorra	1:1 ✺
21.03.26	Comillas - Varea	2:1 ✺
15.03.26	Varea - Vianés	2:1 ✺
08.03.26	Arnedo - Varea	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 WTLWL
- CD Agoncillo
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 16
01.04.26	Agoncillo - Peña Balsamaiso	4:1 ✺
29.03.26	Autol - Agoncillo	0:2 ✺
21.03.26	Agoncillo - Berceo	0:0 ✺
15.03.26	UD Logroñés Promesas - Agoncillo	5:2 ✺
07.03.26	Agoncillo - Oyonesa	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 WWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 16
06.12.25	Agoncillo - Varea	0:1
11.05.25	Agoncillo - Varea	2:2
12.01.25	Varea - Agoncillo	3:2
19.02.23	Varea - Agoncillo	2:1
16.10.22	Agoncillo - Varea	2:0
30.01.22	Agoncillo - Varea	1:0
17.09.21	Varea - Agoncillo	4:0

Varea - Agoncillo