Match Info

ASIA: AFC Champions League - Round 5

Date: 26 November 2024, Tuesday

Location: Karbala International Stadium (Karbala)

Referee: Araki Y. (Jpn)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA AFC 1, beIN Sports MENA AFC 1, beIN Sports MENA AFC 1, TOD
Australia	Paramount+
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Moja TV, Sportklub 2
Bulgaria	Nova Sport
China	iQIYI, Migu, QQ Sports
Croatia	SportKlub 2
Hong-kong	HOY TV
India	FanCode, FanCode, Vision+
Indonesia	RCTI+
Iraq	Al Rabiaa Sport
Malaysia	Astro Go, Sooka
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Romania	AntenaPLAY
Russia	Okko Sport, TV Start Triumph
Slovenia	SportKlub 3
South-korea	Tving
Spain	LaLiga+
Sweden	TV4 Play
Turkey	Spor Smart 2
Ukraine	Sport 2
United-arab-emirates	Abu Dhabi Sports 1
Usa	Paramount+
Vietnam	FPT Play
World	Onefootball, Triller TV+


	Al-Shorta		Al Wasl

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.9	3.4	1.88
	4	3.5	1.87
	3.93	3.54	1.94
	3.88	3.51	1.92
	3.8	3.4	1.83
	3.96	3.48	1.95
	4	3.5	1.87
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.92 ↓ (4.76)	3.48 ↓ (3.55)	1.89 ↑ (1.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Al-Shorta
23.8%

Draw
26.9%

Al Wasl
49.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.8%

26.5%

53.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.3%

25.8%

55.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Al-Shorta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

Al Wasl has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Al-Shorta than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Al Wasl than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Al Wasl could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
27.3%	0%	72.7%

Al Shorta - Al Wasl Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Al-Shorta will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). Al Wasl will win (votes: 8 - 72.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Al Wasl: 46.4% – 99%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Basil A. (G) 27. Khudhair A. S. 12. Raed H. 4. Al Tekreeti M. Y. H. 15. Yahia Alwan A. 25. Qasim A. 29. Mohammed Dawood 10. Farhan A. 14. Moumouni B. 9. Ali H. 18. Ali M.	1. Al Senani K. (G) 33. Mijailovic S. 44. Awad S. 12. Saleh A. 15. Jung Seung-Hyun 25. Perez A. 77. Jonas Santos 6. Sidibe S. 11. Suroor M. 7. Saleh A. 90. Success I.
Substitutes
21. Ahmad H. (G) 7. Al Mawas M. 5. Amin R. 36. Banga S. C. 24. Faisal Jasim 6. Jassem S. 20. Niang I. 11. Shakir B. 19. Sharara 28. Souza L. 30. Youssef F. 31. Zero A.	32. Ali M. (G) 23. Al Zaabi T. 9. Diallo A. 18. Ganaer M. 31. Gimenez N. 10. Lima F. 2. Pedrozo D. 14. Rodrigo 55. Salem A. (G) 5. Salmeen A. 8. Seferovic H. 19. Uchino T.
Coaches
Salah Alwan A.	Milojevic M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
14', 0 - 1, Jonas Santos ⚽, Suroor M. (A),
30', Moumouni B. 🟨,
34', Farhan A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Qasim A. ↓, Youssef F. ↑,
50', 1 - 1, Youssef F. ⚽, Farhan A. (A),
56', Mijailovic S. 🟨,
62', Mijailovic S. ↓, Gimenez N. ↑,
62', Jonas Santos ↓, Lima F. ↑,
64', 1 - 2, Lima F. (Pen),
65', Mohammed Dawood ↓, Al Mawas M. ↑,
66', Ali M. 🟨,
72', Success I. ↓, Seferovic H. ↑,
78', Ali M. ↓, Sharara ↑,
90', Raed H. 🟨,
90+1', 1 - 3, Gimenez N. (Pen),
90+3', Yahia Alwan A. ↓, Souza L. ↑,
90+3', Farhan A. ↓, Shakir B. ↑,
90+6', Saleh A. ↓, Al Zaabi T. ↑,

Preview

A team from the mid-table and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 11 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

Al-Shorta is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Al Wasl is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Al Wasl is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Al-Shorta Damascus
Syrian Premier League
22.11.24	Al-Shorta - Al-Fotuwa	1:0 ✺
AFC Champions League
04.11.24	Al-Ahli Jeddah - Al-Shorta	5:1 ✺
Syrian Premier League
26.10.24	Al-Jaish Damascus - Al-Shorta	2:0 ✺
AFC Champions League
21.10.24	Al-Shorta - Pakhtakor	0:0 ✺
01.10.24	Al-Hilal - Al-Shorta	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WLLTL
- Al Wasl FC
UAE Football League
22.11.24	Al-Wahda - Al Wasl	2:2 ✺
AFC Champions League
04.11.24	Al Wasl - Al-Sadd	1:1 ✺
UAE Football League
31.10.24	Al Wasl - Al-Jazira	2:2 ✺
26.10.24	Ajman Club - Al Wasl	0:0 ✺
AFC Champions League
22.10.24	Al-Gharafa - Al Wasl	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 TTTTW

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