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Current Win Probability
Arema 26.3%
Draw 24.6%
Dewa United 49%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
40.4%
27.8%
31.8%
Our Initial ML Estimation
41.6%
28.6%
30.9%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Arema has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.1%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Arema's form might have worsened.
Dewa United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+17.2%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Dewa United's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arema than the current prediction. (+15.3%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Arema, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dewa United than the current prediction. (-18.1%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Dewa United, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Arema - Dewa United Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
26. Trisna S. (G) 19. Sjahbandi H. 3. Diego Landis 66. Yama H. 4. Guntara L. 8. Fikri A. (C) 18. Betinho 25. Matheus Blade 7. Gabriel Silva 98. MV 95. Careca
92. Stevens S. (G) 4. Johnathan 2. Kuipers N. 22. Ko Myeong-Seok 37. Ballah A. 27. Struick R. 6. Jenner I. 5. Jean Mangabeira 10. Vikri E. (C) 7. Deni Junior 77. Sadaoui N.
Substitutes
14. Alfiansyah A. 21. Arjidan F. 24. Darwis R. 87. Farisi A. 6. Guevara J. 10. Gustavo Franca 31. Pandenuwu G. (G) 34. Samuel Otusanya 41. Santoso D. 13. Tito Hamzah 11. Tuharea S. 9. Zijlstra M.
25. Buffon A. 14. Fatari B. 97. Febriansyah E. 28. Messidoro A. 9. Pedro 1. Riyandi M. (G) 99. Sanggasi S. (G) 26. Saviola F. 23. Setiawan A. 63. Wahyudi R.
Coaches
Marquinhos S.
Loss O.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 0)
30', 1 - 0, Careca ⚽, Gabriel Silva (A),
38', Johnathan ↓, Buffon A. ↑,
45+3', Maulana A. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Vikri E. ↓, Pedro ↑,
52', 2 - 0, Careca ⚽, Maulana A. (A),
61', Ballah A. ↓, Febriansyah E. ↑,
61', Jean Mangabeira ↓, Messidoro A. ↑,
63', Matheus Blade ↓, Samuel Otusanya ↑,
65', 3 - 0, Samuel Otusanya ⚽, MV (A),
67', Diego Landis 🟨,
70', Guntara L. ↓, Farisi A. ↑,
84', Trisna S. 🟨,
86', Betinho ↓, Guevara J. ↑,
86', Careca ↓, Gustavo Franca ↑,
86', MV ↓, Zijlstra M. ↑,
90+1', Kuipers N. 🟨,
90+5', 4 - 0, Guevara J. ⚽, Gustavo Franca (A),
Preview
A competitive mid-table side looks to challenge an upper-table opponent (ranked 12th and 2nd in the Promotion - AFC Champions League 2 (Qualification: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arema won 1.
Arema is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 0 wins).
Dewa United is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 3 wins).
A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Dewa United holding a narrow advantage.
In the last 8 head-to-head meetings, Arema has recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 5:8 (averaging 0.6:1 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Arema against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 2 draws, and 1 loss, with 3:3 goals (averaging 0.8:0.8 per game).
Indonesia
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Trisna S. (G) 
Diego Landis 
Stevens S. (G) 
Ko Myeong-Seok 
Sadaoui N. 
Guevara J. 
Samuel Otusanya 
Messidoro A. 
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