Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 12 - Round 13

Date: 6 December 2025, Saturday


	Arucas		UD San Fernando

	1	X	2
	2.68	3.15	2.38
	2.4	3.23	2.79
	2.18	3.27	3.1
	2.2	3	3
	2.29	3.63	2.81
	2.12	3.25	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.31 ↓ (2.68)	3.26 ↑ (3.18)	2.86 ↑ (2.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arucas
39.7%

Draw
28.2%

UD San Fernando
32.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.8%

28.5%

37.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.8%

28.5%

37.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arucas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Arucas's performance.

UD San Fernando has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and UD San Fernando might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arucas than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Arucas that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for UD San Fernando than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that UD San Fernando could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Arucas - UD San Fernando Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 13 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Tercera RFEF ~ Group 12 (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arucas won 2.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Arucas won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:8. (average 1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Arucas won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:1. (average 1.3:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arucas CF
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 12
22.11.25	Arucas - Lanzarote	3:1 ✺
14.11.25	Villa de Santa Brígida - Arucas	1:0 ✺
08.11.25	Arucas - Unión Sur Yaiza	1:1 ✺
01.11.25	Arcángel San Miguel - Arucas	1:0 ✺
25.10.25	Arucas - Atlético Paso	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.9 WLTLW
- UD San Fernando
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 12
23.11.25	UD San Fernando - Villa de Santa Brígida	2:1 ✺
15.11.25	Unión Sur Yaiza - UD San Fernando	0:1 ✺
09.11.25	UD San Fernando - Arcángel San Miguel	1:0 ✺
02.11.25	Atlético Paso - UD San Fernando	3:0 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
28.10.25	UD San Fernando - Albacete Balompié	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 12
04.04.25	Arucas - UD San Fernando	0:1
24.11.24	UD San Fernando - Arucas	4:1
10.02.23	Arucas - UD San Fernando	1:0
07.10.22	UD San Fernando - Arucas	1:1
10.04.21	Arucas - UD San Fernando	3:0
27.11.20	UD San Fernando - Arucas	2:0

Arucas - UD San Fernando: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide