Match Info

First League - Round 6

Date: 15 May 2026, Friday


	Arys		Khan Tengri

	1	X	2
	3.75	4.05	1.68
	4.09	4.23	1.63	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.92 ↓ (4.09)	4.14 ↓ (4.23)	1.66 ↑ (1.63)

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arys
23.2%

Draw
21.9%

Khan Tengri
54.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.3%

21.6%

56.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.5%

20.8%

58.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arys has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Khan Tengri has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arys than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Khan Tengri than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
2', 0 - 1, Amirbek N. ⚽, Amirzhanov A. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 13 in the zone Relegation and 6).

Arys is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Khan Tengri has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Arys may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Khan Tengri is considered a favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Arys won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:6. (average 1.5:3).

Including home match between the teams, Arys won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Khan Tengri	23	7	4	12	29:44	-15	25
11	Arys	23	7	3	13	29:43	-14	24

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Arys
Kazakh First League
07.05.26	Tobol 2 - Arys	4:3 ✺
30.04.26	Arys - Astana 2	3:1 ✺
23.04.26	Arys - Shakhter Karagandy	0:6 ✺
16.04.26	Turan Turkistan - Arys	1:0 ✺
Kazakh Cup
09.04.26	Arys - Aktobe	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 LWLLL
- Khan Tengri FC
Kazakh First League
08.05.26	Khan Tengri - Akademiya Ontustik	3:0 ✺
01.05.26	Turan Turkistan - Khan Tengri	1:0 ✺
24.04.26	Khan Tengri - Jaiyq	1:0 ✺
17.04.26	Yelimay 2 - Khan Tengri	3:3 ✺
Kazakh Cup
09.04.26	Khan Tengri - Kyzylzhar	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 WLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh First League
23.08.24	Khan Tengri - Arys	3:2
07.04.23	Arys - Khan Tengri	1:3

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