The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Athletic Bilbao 26.8%
Draw 25.9%
Atlético Madrid 47.3%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
41.1%
27%
31.9%
Our Initial ML Estimation
42.6%
26%
30.8%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Athletic Bilbao has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.3%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Athletic Bilbao's form might have worsened.
Atlético Madrid has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.4%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Atlético Madrid's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletic Bilbao than the current prediction. (+15.8%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Athletic Bilbao, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Madrid than the current prediction. (-16.5%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Atlético Madrid, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Athletic Bilbao - Atlético Madrid Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
13. Nanclares A. (G) 3. Landaluze N. 2. Torre Larranaga M. 4. Bibi 12. Facila G. 19. Vilarino M. 15. Pinedo C. 6. Oguiza I. 5. Valero M. 18. Ortega S. 11. Azkona A. (C)
1. Lola (C) 2. Rodriguez Herrero L. M. 5. Perez X. 19. Calligaris V. 11. Otermin R. 21. Csiszar H. 6. Zubieta M. 10. Iannuzzi F. 22. Luany 7. Jensen S. 17. Poljak A.
Substitutes
7. Amezaga J. 23. Arana E. 21. Artero M. 1. Astralaga E. (G) 8. Campos A. 20. Elexpuru A. 16. Iribarren 22. Martinez A. 10. Zugasti P.
23. Alexia 34. Barrios C. 20. Gabi Nunes 18. Gio Garbelini 28. Gomez C. 12. Kuhl K. 4. Lauren Leal 13. Perez G. (G) 3. Rodriguez L.
Coaches
Martin V.
Gonzalez D.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (2 - 1)
1', 1 - 0, Azkona A. ⚽, Ortega S. (A),
6', 1 - 1, Iannuzzi F. ⚽,
15', Luany 🟨,
32', 2 - 1, Ortega S. ⚽, Vilarino M. (A),
40', Pinedo C. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
50', Vilarino M. 🟨,
56', Luany 🟨,
58', Vilarino M. ↓, Elexpuru A. ↑,
59', Oguiza I. ↓, Iribarren ↑,
65', Zubieta M. ↓, Gio Garbelini ↑,
70', Pinedo C. 🟨,
71', Otermin R. ↓, Alexia ↑,
71', Poljak A. ↓, Kuhl K. ↑,
73', Azkona A. ↓, Campos A. ↑,
74', 3 - 1, Campos A. ⚽, Ortega S. (A),
83', Landaluze N. ↓, Martinez A. ↑,
83', Ortega S. ↓, Amezaga J. ↑,
85', Calligaris V. ↓, Gabi Nunes ↑,
85', Csiszar H. ↓, Gomez C. ↑,
89', 3 - 2, Gabi Nunes ⚽, Gio Garbelini (A),
90+1', Bibi 🟨,
90+1', Facila G. 🟨,
Preview
This match features a clash between a top-table contender and a mid-table team (ranked 4th and 7th).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Athletic won 0.
Athletic has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 3 wins).
Performances by Atlético Madrid have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).
Atlético Madrid could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.
Atlético Madrid is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.
In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Athletic has recorded 3 wins, 5 draws, and 12 losses, with a goal aggregate of 18:41 (averaging 0.9:2.1 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Athletic against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses, with 12:20 goals (averaging 1.2:2 per game).
Spain
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Nanclares A. (G) 
Bibi 
Calligaris V. 
Csiszar H. 
Luany 
Jensen S. 
Poljak A. 
Kuhl K. 
Perez G. (G) 
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