Match Info

Champions League Women - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 12 February 2026, Thursday

Location: Centro Deportivo Wanda Alcalá de Henares (Madrid)

Referee: Gasperotti S. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, SupeSport ESPN 1
Albania	Disney+
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, TOD
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Croatia	Disney+
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France	Disney+
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Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Sooka
Mexico	TVC Deportes
Netherlands	Disney+
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Venezuela	Disney+, Inter


	Atlético Madrid		Manchester United

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.8	1.85
	2.9	3.4	2.2
	3.7	3.45	1.92
	3.8	3.53	1.92
	3.66	3.64	1.94	Watch
	3.5	3.2	1.85
	3.69	3.45	1.86
	3.66	3.4	1.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.54 ↑ (2.98)	3.48 ↑ (3.47)	1.94 ↓ (2.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Madrid
26%

Draw
26.4%

Manchester United
47.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.4%

26.9%

41.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.3%

26%

43.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Madrid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Atlético Madrid's form might have worsened.

Manchester United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Manchester United's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Madrid than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Manchester United than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	20%	80%

Atlético Madrid - Manchester United Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Man Utd will win (votes: 8 - 80%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Man Utd: 55.2% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Man Utd (1.25) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Manchester United will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Man Utd (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lola (C) 23. Alexia 15. Lloris S. 4. Lauren Leal 11. Menayo C. 3. Medina A. 6. Boe Risa V. 21. Iannuzzi F. 17. Bartel J. 7. Jensen S. 20. Sarriegi A.	91. Tullis-Joyce P. (G) 14. Riviere J. 4. Le Tissier M. (C) 17. Janssen D. 2. Sandberg A. 20. Miyazawa H. 18. Zigiotti Olme J. 8. Park J. 19. Wangerheim E. 10. Terland E. 9. Malard M.
Substitutes
31. Bucero A. (G) 16. Chinchilla P. 18. Gio Garbelini 9. Guijarro S. 46. Gutierrez D. 12. Kuhl K. 13. Larque P. (G) 27. Martin N. 14. Otermin R. 5. Perez X. 19. Portales Nieto M. 41. Rodriguez L.	13. Awujo S. 3. George G. 5. Lundkvist H. 39. Middleton-Patel S. (G) 16. Naalsund L. 1. Rendell K. (G) 24. Schuller L. 21. Turner M.
Coaches
Herrera J.	Skinner M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
3', 0 - 1, Terland E. ⚽, Malard M. (A),
39', 0 - 2, Malard M. ⚽,
44', Lloris S. ↓, Perez X. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
48', Sandberg A. ↓, George G. ↑,
58', Wangerheim E. 🟨,
59', Bartel J. ↓, Kuhl K. ↑,
59', Menayo C. ↓, Otermin R. ↑,
61', Wangerheim E. ↓, Naalsund L. ↑,
72', Sarriegi A. 🟨,
73', Jensen S. ↓, Guijarro S. ↑,
74', Sarriegi A. ↓, Gio Garbelini ↑,
81', 0 - 3, Zigiotti Olme J. ⚽, Malard M. (A),
83', Park J. ↓, Awujo S. ↑,

Preview

First leg.

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 11 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League Women (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League Women (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

In recent matches, Atlético Madrid has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Man Utd is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Man Utd may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Man Utd is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Atlético Madrid won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Including home match between the teams, Atlético Madrid won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Madrid Féminas
Spanish Liga F Women
08.02.26	Levante - Atlético Madrid	0:1 ✺
Spanish Copa De La Reina
04.02.26	Atlético Madrid - Athletic Bilbao	4:1 ✺
Spanish Liga F Women
31.01.26	Atlético Madrid - Granada	1:1 ✺
Spanish Supercopa Women
20.01.26	Real Madrid - Atlético Madrid	3:1 ✺
Spanish Liga F Women
17.01.26	Atlético Madrid - Espanyol	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 WWTLL
- Manchester United WFC
English WSL
07.02.26	Leicester City - Manchester United	0:2 ✺
01.02.26	Manchester United - Liverpool LFC	3:1 ✺
25.01.26	Aston Villa - Manchester United	1:4 ✺
English League Cup Women
21.01.26	Arsenal LFC - Manchester United	0:1 ✺
English FA Cup Women
18.01.26	Manchester United - Burnley	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.4 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League Women
16.10.25	Atlético Madrid - Manchester United	0:1

Atlético Madrid - Manchester United: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide