Match Info

National League - Championship Group - Round 8

Date: 14 November 2025, Friday

Location: Keith Hay Park (Auckland)

Where to Watch on TV:


World	FIFA+


	Auckland United		Birkenhead United

	1	X	2
	2.42	3.85	2.28
	2.47	4.18	2.35
	2.76	4.15	2.11	Watch
	2.47	4.06	2.39
	2.75	3.95	2.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.57 ↓ (2.75)	4.04 ↑ (3.95)	2.26 ↑ (2.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Auckland United
36%

Draw
22.9%

Birkenhead United
41.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.6%

23.4%

43%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.5%

22.7%

44.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Auckland United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

Birkenhead United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Auckland United than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Birkenhead United than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

Auckland United - Birkenhead United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
15', 1 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
58', 1 - 1, ⚽,
66', 1 - 2, ⚽,
73', 2 - 2, ⚽,
81', 3 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 9 and 5).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Auckland United won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Auckland United
New Zealand National League
07.11.25	Auckland City - Auckland United	4:2 ✺
31.10.25	Auckland United - Coastal Spirit	3:0 ✺
26.10.25	Western Springs - Auckland United	2:1 ✺
17.10.25	Auckland United - Wellington Phoenix 2	0:0 ✺
10.10.25	Miramar Rangers - Auckland United	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 LWLTT
- Birkenhead United
New Zealand National League
08.11.25	Birkenhead United - Christchurch United	3:0 ✺
01.11.25	Auckland FC 2 - Birkenhead United	3:0 ✺
25.10.25	Birkenhead United - Wellington Olympic	2:4 ✺
18.10.25	Western Suburbs - Birkenhead United	3:1 ✺
04.10.25	Birkenhead United - Auckland City	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

New Zealand National League
18.11.22	Birkenhead United - Auckland United	2:0

Auckland United - Birkenhead United: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide