Match Info

WORLD: Olympic Games Women - Round 3

Date: 31 July 2024, Wednesday

Location: Stade Vélodrome (Marseille)

Referee: Letexier F. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 9
Australia	9Now, Stan Sport
Cambodia	CNC
Denmark	Discovery+, DR TV
Finland	Discovery+
Hong-kong	HOY TV
Indonesia	Vidio
Mexico	Claro Sports
Morocco	SNRT Live
Singapore	meWATCH
Spain	Eurosport 1
Sweden	Discovery+
United-kingdom	Discovery+ UK, Eurosport 2
Usa	FuboTV, NBC Universo, NBC, Peacock TV, Telemundo, UNIVERSO NOW
World	DirecTV Sports, Max, SportsMax App


	Australia W		USA W

	1	X	2
	4.33	4.75	1.55
	5	4.33	1.57
	5	4.5	1.55
	5.4	4.59	1.56
	5.04	4.66	1.53	Watch
	5.15	4.55	1.57	Watch
	4.8	4.4	1.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.96 ↑ (4.67)	4.54 ↑ (3.68)	1.55 ↓ (1.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Australia W
18.9%

Draw
20.7%

USA W
60.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.1%

25.5%

54.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.4%

24.6%

56.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Australia W has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

USA W has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting USA W's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Australia W than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for USA W than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
6.2%	18.7%	75%

Australia W - USA W Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Australia will win (votes: 1 - 6.3%). USA will win (votes: 12 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 18.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for USA: 53.8% – 96.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Arnold M. (G) 12. Carpenter E. Lyon 14. Kennedy A. Manchester City 15. Hunt C. PSG 7. Catley S. (C) Arsenal 6. Gorry K. West Ham 3. Torpey K. San Diego Wave 16. Raso H. 8. Cooney-Cross K. Arsenal 9. Foord C. Arsenal 11. Fowler M. Manchester City	1. Naeher A. (G) Chicago Red Stars 2. Fox E. Arsenal 4. Girma N. San Diego Wave 14. Sonnett E. Gotham FC 7. Dunn C. Gotham FC 17. Coffey S. Portland Thorns FC 10. Horan L. (C) Lyon 16. Lavelle R. Gotham FC 5. Rodman T. Washington Spirit 9. Swanson M. Chicago Red Stars 11. Smith S. Portland Thorns FC
Substitutes
2. Heyman M. Canberra 18. Micah T. (G) Liverpool 4. Polkinghorne C. Kristianstad 10. van Egmond E. San Diego Wave 5. Vine C. Sydney 17. Wheeler C. Everton 13. Yallop T. Brisbane Roar	3. Albert K. PSG 20. Bethune C. Washington Spirit 6. Krueger C. Washington Spirit 18. Murphy C. (G) North Carolina Courage 13. Nighswonger J. Gotham FC 21. Sams E. Orlando Pride 8. Williams L. Gotham FC
Coaches
Gustavsson T.	Hayes E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
4', Coffey S. 🟨,
43', 0 - 1, Rodman T. ⚽, Smith S. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Dunn C. ↓, Nighswonger J. ↑,
46', Cooney-Cross K. ↓, Wheeler C. ↑,
59', Torpey K. ↓, Heyman M. ↑,
59', Gorry K. ↓, van Egmond E. ↑,
65', Rodman T. ↓, Williams L. ↑,
65', Lavelle R. ↓, Albert K. ↑,
65', Fox E. ↓, Krueger C. ↑,
67', Albert K. 🟨,
77', 0 - 2, Albert K. ⚽,
79', Swanson M. ↓, Bethune C. ↑,
85', Raso H. ↓, Yallop T. ↑,
90+2', 1 - 2, Kennedy A. ⚽, Heyman M. (A),

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Australia won 0.

Recent matches Australia is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

USA is in a marvelous shape and in addition in the last match got series victories (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

In this match USA is a favorite.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Australia won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 10-17.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Australia W
Olympic Games - Football Women
28.07.24	Australia W - Zambia W	6:5 ✺
25.07.24	Germany W - Australia W	3:0 ✺
Friendly International Women
13.07.24	Australia W - Canada W	1:2 ✺
03.06.24	Australia W - China W	2:0 ✺
31.05.24	Australia W - China W	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 WLLWT
- USA W
Olympic Games - Football Women
28.07.24	USA W - Germany W	4:1 ✺
25.07.24	USA W - Zambia W	3:0 ✺
Friendly International Women
16.07.24	USA W - Costa Rica W	0:0 ✺
13.07.24	USA W - Mexico W	1:0 ✺
04.06.24	USA W - South Korea W	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Friendly International Women
30.11.21	Australia W - USA W	1:1
26.11.21	Australia W - USA W	0:3
Olympic Games - Football Women
05.08.21	Australia W - USA W	3:4
27.07.21	USA W - Australia W	0:0
Friendly International Women
04.04.19	USA W - Australia W	5:3
Tournament of Nations Women
29.07.18	USA W - Australia W	1:1
Friendly International Women
27.07.17	USA W - Australia W	0:1

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