Match Info

WORLD: Olympic Games Women - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 6 August 2024, Tuesday

Location: Parc Olympique Lyonnais (Lyon)

Referee: Karboubi B. (Mar)

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	Eurosport 2
Denmark	DR 1, DR 2, DR TV, Eurosport 2
Europe	Eurosport 2
Finland	Discovery+, Eurosport 2
Germany	Eurosport 1, Eurosport 2
Hungary	Eurosport 2
Netherlands	Eurosport 2
New-zealand	Sky Sport 6
Poland	Eurosport 2
Portugal	Eurosport 2
Romania	Eurosport 2
Spain	Eurosport 1
Sweden	Eurosport 2
Switzerland	SRF 2, SRF 2
United-kingdom	Discovery+ UK, Eurosport 1, Eurosport 5
Usa	FuboTV, Telemundo, USA Network
World	Eurosport 5, Max


	USA W		Germany W

	1	X	2
	1.83	3.3	4.75
	1.85	3.25	4.4
	1.85	3.3	4.5
	1.84	3.39	5.13
	1.9	3.47	4.22	Watch
	1.89	3.45	4.36	Watch
	1.85	3.3	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.86 ↓ (2.15)	3.35 ↑ (2.98)	4.55 ↑ (3.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

Watch this match and Olympic Games - Football Women with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: USA Network

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Current Win Probability

USA W
50.9%

Draw
28.3%

Germany W
20.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.6%

31.5%

24.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45%

30.5%

24%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

USA W has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in USA W's performance.

Germany W has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for USA W than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with USA W that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Germany W than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
73.1%	15.4%	11.5%

USA W - Germany W Predictions

Users Predictions: 25 users predict this event. USA will win (votes: 18 - 72%). Germany will win (votes: 3 - 12%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 16%).
Confidence interval (95%) for USA: 54.4% – 89.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Naeher A. (G) Chicago Red Stars 2. Fox E. Arsenal 4. Girma N. San Diego Wave 12. Davidson T. Gotham FC 7. Dunn C. Gotham FC 10. Horan L. (C) Lyon 17. Coffey S. Portland Thorns FC 5. Rodman T. Washington Spirit 16. Lavelle R. Gotham FC 9. Swanson M. Chicago Red Stars 11. Smith S. Portland Thorns FC	12. Berger A. (G) Gotham FC 15. Gwinn G. (C) Bayern Munich 3. Hendrich K. Wolfsburg 5. Hegering M. Wolfsburg 19. Rauch F. North Carolina Courage 16. Brand J. Wolfsburg 8. Lohmann S. Bayern Munich 6. Minge J. Freiburg 17. Buhl K. Bayern Munich 9. Nusken S. Chelsea 21. Anyomi N. Eintracht Frankfurt
Substitutes
3. Albert K. PSG 6. Krueger C. Washington Spirit 18. Murphy C. (G) North Carolina Courage 13. Nighswonger J. Gotham FC 15. Shaw J. San Diego Wave 14. Sonnett E. Gotham FC 8. Williams L. Gotham FC	4. Bibi Athletic Bilbao 13. Doorsoun-Khajeh S. Eintracht Frankfurt 18. Endemann V. Wolfsburg 10. Freigang L. Eintracht Frankfurt 1. Frohms M. (G) Wolfsburg 2. Linder S. Hoffenheim 14. Senss E. Bayer Leverkusen
Coaches
Hayes E.	Hrubesch H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
44', Hegering M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Davidson T. ↓, Sonnett E. ↑,
60', Lavelle R. ↓, Williams L. ↑,
69', Anyomi N. ↓, Freigang L. ↑,
78', Hegering M. ↓, Bibi ↑,
Extra Time (1 - 0)
91', Lohmann S. ↓, Senss E. ↑,
91', Dunn C. ↓, Nighswonger J. ↑,
91', Horan L. ↓, Albert K. ↑,
95', 1 - 0, Smith S. ⚽, Swanson M. (A),
106', Rauch F. ↓, Doorsoun-Khajeh S. ↑,
108', Brand J. 🟨,
111', Swanson M. ↓, Krueger C. ↑,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches USA won 4.

USA in the latest game got a series victories and it is in a perfect shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Germany is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

In this match USA is a favorite.

Last 8 head-to-head matches USA won 6 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 16-8.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- USA W
Olympic Games - Football Women
03.08.24	USA W - Japan W	1:0 ET ✺
31.07.24	Australia W - USA W	1:2 ✺
28.07.24	USA W - Germany W	4:1 ✺
25.07.24	USA W - Zambia W	3:0 ✺
Friendly International Women
16.07.24	USA W - Costa Rica W	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WWWWT
- Germany W
Olympic Games - Football Women
03.08.24	Canada W - Germany W	0:1 penalties ✺
31.07.24	Zambia W - Germany W	1:4 ✺
28.07.24	USA W - Germany W	4:1 ✺
25.07.24	Germany W - Australia W	3:0 ✺
UEFA Euro Women
16.07.24	Germany W - Austria W	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Olympic Games - Football Women
28.07.24	USA W - Germany W	4:1
Friendly International Women
13.11.22	USA W - Germany W	2:1
10.11.22	USA W - Germany W	1:2
SheBelieves Cup Women
01.03.18	USA W - Germany W	1:0
01.03.17	USA W - Germany W	1:0
09.03.16	USA W - Germany W	2:1
FIFA World Cup Women
30.06.15	USA W - Germany W	2:0

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